📰 Market Report.
⏳ And the 90-day truce on Trump’s tariffs has come to an end. We were promised ‘90 days for 90 trade agreements,’ but it doesn’t matter. The enthusiasm has been lost, and the new announcement of tariffs no longer motivates Trump as much as the presentation on 2 April did.
📉 The good news is that the feared inflation caused by tariffs is, for the moment, not materialising. The PCE inflation rate published yesterday aligned with expectations on a monthly basis and was slightly above the forecast on an annualised basis, at 2.6% compared to the predicted 2.5%.
📊 Today, we will also receive the labour data from the United States. For the moment, the Initial Jobless Claims published yesterday were positive, showing better-than-expected results, 218k vs 222k expected.
💵 But Trump wants to gain the people’s trust in his tariff war, and money is always a good motivator. Senator Josh Hawley, R-Mo., introduced the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025, which would provide “at least” $600 per adult and dependent child, or $2,400 for a family of four, from tariff revenue.
💸 The plan would be to use the tax revenue from tariffs, which harm American consumption, to incentivise and strengthen that very same consumption. This is not the first time this idea has been speculated upon. Donald Trump mentioned on at least two occasions the possibility that, given the substantial revenue generated by tariffs, Americans might not need to pay taxes in the future — something that, if it were to happen, would provide a significant economic stimulus within the United States.
📈 Due to tariff revenue that was more than four times more than it was a year earlier, the U.S. Treasury Department announced an unexpected surplus in June.
📉 However, the markets have not reacted well to the return of tariffs, with considerable declines in the futures of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, despite the positive results from Microsoft and Meta. Microsoft and Meta Platforms respectively rose about 4% and 11% on the back of better-than-expected quarterly earnings, with Microsoft reaching a $4 trillion market capitalization.
🍎 Apple surpasses forecasts in terms of revenue and profit. In its fiscal third quarter, the Cupertino-based company’s iPhone sales increased 13% year over year, while overall revenue increased 10%, the best gain since December 2021. Amazon’s profits are overshadowed by its pessimistic forecast. The company’s estimated operating income for the current quarter fell short of analysts’ expectations, despite the fact that its second-quarter performance exceeded Wall Street’s expectations.
🚗 New car registrations in France declined 7.66% in July compared to the same period a year earlier, reaching 116,377 vehicles. Tesla’s sales in France fell 26.57% to 1,307 vehicles last month. Since the start of the year, Tesla’s sales in France have slumped by 38.52%, while the overall French car market has shrunk by 7.91% over the same period.
🏎️ Porsche recorded a 91% drop in operating profit during the second quarter of the year, falling from €1.7 billion to just €154 million. It also experienced a 13% drop in revenue, which fell to around €8.3 billion. The reasons for this were reduced deliveries in China, the impact of import tariffs in the United States, and the high costs associated with the company’s transformation.
🔋 In response, CEO Oliver Blume announced that Porsche will not abandon combustion engines, but will maintain its commitment to electric models and reaffirm the role of traditional and hybrid powertrains in the long term.
🌍 Geopolitics:
🤝 After Trump’s tariffs, India has informed the United States that it is not interested in purchasing F-35 fighter jets, according to Bloomberg.
📂 The U.S. Senate Just Forced Trump to release The Full Epstein files by August 15th. Senate Democrats have formally invoked a rarely used federal law—Section 2954, also called the “Rule of Five”—to pressure President Donald Trump’s Department of Justice (DOJ) to release the full files related to Jeffrey Epstein.
🌐 This week, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and Slovenia imposed sanctions—such as asset freezes and travel bans—on Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich for inciting violence against Palestinians.
✍️ The Netherlands introduced export restrictions, while Spain, Ireland, and Slovenia called to suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement. France, the UK, Canada, Malta, Portugal, and Andorra declared plans to formally recognise the State of Palestine in September at the UN.
🇨🇦 President Donald Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs on Canadian imports from 25% to 35% on August 1, 2025. Trump publicly linked Canada’s Palestinian statehood move to difficulties in trade negotiations. In a post on his social media and subsequent statements, Trump said, “Canada just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them.”
🚫 The US has just sanctioned the Palestinian Authority for taking Israel to international court. The United States has imposed new sanctions on officials from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and members of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) following the PA’s actions to take Israel before international courts, including the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.
📉 “My people are starting to hate Israel,” Trump in conversation with a prominent Jewish donor, was reported by the Financial Times. According to The Times of Israel, the remark was made recently, with Trump warning the donor that his MAGA base was turning on Israel.
📉 Market Review:
📉 Tariffs have returned, and the markets are falling. The Mini S&P 500 futures have declined from their all-time highs to the current 6,355 points. Nasdaq futures are following the same trend, despite the strong results from tech companies, dropping from yesterday’s highs to the current 23,275 points.
📉 In Europe, the markets are also experiencing sharper declines. DAX 40 futures have fallen nearly 2.5%, reaching the current 23,930 points. Eurostoxx 50 futures have dropped below 5,300 points and are also seeing significant losses.
💵 The dollar is strengthening, with the DXY dollar index approaching 100 points, causing pairs like EUR/USD to plummet, reaching the current 1.1435.
🛢️ Crude oil has retreated from the nearly $73 per barrel for Brent reached on Wednesday to the current $71.65.
🥇 Gold futures are zigzagging downwards and are now below $3,350 per ounce.
₿ Bitcoin, weighed down by the performance of equities, has lost the $116,000 support level and is currently trading at $115,215.
🤝 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said negotiations with China are at a point where both sides “have the makings of a deal,” but he did not provide any details or timeline.
