UsdJpy was one of the most volatile currency pairs last year and looking at the first few weeks of trading of this year, it looks like it could be a similar story for 2025. We have already seen a move in excess of 5% from peak to floor in the last few weeks and if we see more technical levels break then we could see an even bigger move moving forward.
One of the primary fundamental pushes behind the change of direction for the Yen has been the Bank of Japan which raised rates to the highest level the country has seen in 17 years on the back of increased economic growth, and wage and price inflation. The statement and comments in the press conference that accompanied the rate hike led to the market pricing in further rate hikes in the coming year with the next move likely to come in July.
Overnight we have seen a bit of a bounce in UsdJpy as it made some gains for the first time in six days, however the recent downtrend remains in place and breaks of the trendline support on the Daily chart at 151.15 and the recent low at 150.93 could see it extend further. Initial resistance now sits on the 200-Day Moving Average at 152.76 with stronger resistance now coming in around the 155.00 level.
Resistance Levels
161.75 – 2024 High
158.89 – 2025 High
158.41 – Trendline Resistance
Support Levels
151.15 – Trendline Support
150.93 – 2025 Low
148.63 – Dec 2024 Low
