Key Economic Announcements to Watch – This week promises to be a busy one for traders, with several significant data releases across major economies. Let’s take a closer look at what to expect and why the forecasted figures are shaping up as they are.
Monday, September 30, 2024
– China Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Forecast:
49.4 | Previous: 49.1
China’s Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 49.4, slightly higher than last month’s figure of 49.1 but still below the 50 threshold, which separates expansion from contraction. The marginal improvement reflects ongoing recovery efforts post-lockdown, but the global slowdown and weak domestic demand continue to weigh heavily on the sector. Investors will be looking closely at these numbers to assess how China’s economic rebound is faring amidst global trade challenges.
– UK GDP (YoY & QoQ) (Q2)
YoY Forecast:
0.90% | Previous: 0.90%
QoQ Forecast:
0.60% | Previous: 0.60%
The UK economy is expected to maintain a steady 0.90% year-on-year growth, with a 0.60% quarter-on-quarter increase. These stable figures come on the back of resilient consumer spending and a recovering services sector. However, concerns about inflation and higher interest rates might cap growth in the months to come.
– German CPI (MoM) (Sep)
Forecast: 0.10% | Previous: -0.10%
German inflation is forecast to slightly rise to 0.10% from last month’s -0.10%. Energy prices, while lower than earlier in the year, have seen some upward pressure recently, contributing to the slight increase. Investors will be keen to understand how these inflation numbers align with the European Central Bank’s monetary policy trajectory.
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Tuesday, October 1, 2024
– Australian Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
Forecast:
0.40% | Previous: 0.00%
Australia’s retail sales are projected to rise by 0.40%, a sign of renewed consumer confidence following stagnant sales in July. The stronger retail figures could reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain its interest rates, supporting a more optimistic outlook for the economy.
– Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Sep)
Forecast:
1.90% | Previous: 2.20%
Inflation in the Eurozone is expected to slow to 1.90%, down from 2.20%. This marks a positive step toward price stability, which will be welcomed by the European Central Bank (ECB) after months of aggressive rate hikes. A cooling inflation print might give the ECB breathing room to pause rate hikes in the near term.
– US Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Forecast: 47 | Previous: 47
The US Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain in contraction territory at 47, unchanged from the previous month. While manufacturing continues to struggle due to weakening demand and higher costs, any uptick in future releases could signal improving conditions in this critical sector.
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Wednesday, October 2, 2024
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Forecast:
47.6 | Previous: 47.2
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up slightly to 47.6 from 47.2, indicating persistent but softening contraction in US manufacturing. Supply chain disruptions and higher interest rates have continued to dampen industrial output, but businesses remain optimistic about future growth.
– US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
Forecast:
7.640M | Previous: 7.673M
Job openings in the US are forecast to remain stable at 7.640M, only slightly down from the previous month. This indicates continued strength in the labor market, though the slight dip suggests hiring may be slowing as businesses become cautious in a higher-rate environment.
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)
Forecast:
124K | Previous: 99K
Employment growth in the private sector is expected to accelerate, with 124K jobs added in September compared to 99K in August. This could signal a robust labor market ahead of Friday’s official nonfarm payrolls report, providing further clues about the Fed’s future rate decisions.
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Thursday, October 3, 2024
– US Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 221K | Previous: 218K
Initial jobless claims are forecast to increase slightly to 221K from 218K, indicating a stable labor market with no major signs of distress. This data will be important for gauging labor market resilience in the face of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
– US Services PMI (Sep)
Forecast:
55.4 | Previous: 55.4
The US Services PMI is expected to hold steady at 55.4, reflecting healthy growth in the services sector. As the backbone of the US economy, a strong services PMI could offer support to markets, offsetting some of the weakness in manufacturing.
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Friday, October 4, 2024
– US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Forecast:
51.6 | Previous: 51.5
The non-manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up slightly to 51.6, signaling continued expansion in the services sector. As one of the key components of the US economy, this release will be closely watched by traders looking for insights into economic resilience.
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
Forecast:
144K | Previous: 142K
The highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is forecast to show the US economy added 144K jobs in September, a modest improvement from the 142K in August. Employment growth remains solid, but the pace has slowed in recent months as higher borrowing costs begin to weigh on hiring.
– US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
Forecast:
4.20% | Previous: 4.20%
The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.20%. With the Fed closely watching labor market conditions, this figure will be crucial for determining the trajectory of future interest rate decisions.
– US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)
Forecast:
0.30% | Previous: 0.40%
Wage growth is forecast to slow to 0.30% from 0.40%, reflecting a cooling in wage pressures. Slower wage growth could ease concerns about inflation and give the Fed more room to pause on further rate hikes.
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Market Focus: US PCE Price Index
Looking ahead, investors are also keenly watching the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. While not on the calendar for this week, any clues from upcoming speeches or employment data will be critical in shaping expectations for this key inflation report, which could influence the Fed’s rate path.
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With a packed calendar and major economic releases ahead, it’s bound to be a week of volatility. Stay tuned as these data points shape market expectations and guide central bank policy decisions.
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