Market Report.
📝 According to Blog ZeroHedge, yesterday was a “TACO Thursday” refers to the market meme “Trump Always Chickens Out,” where Trump makes aggressive threats and then backs down. On June 11, 2026, he shifted from threatening to strike Iran to saying a deal was nearly complete. This de-escalation caused oil prices to fall sharply and stocks to spike.
📈 As we mentioned in previous posts, it would be unusual for a bear market to be allowed to take hold just before Musk’s IPO. This rally occurred just ahead of the SpaceX IPO under the ticker SPCX, one of the largest public offerings in history with a valuation estimated above 1.75 trillion dollars. Markets were advancing into this major liquidity event, which would trigger automatic buying from index funds and ETFs.
📎 Below, you’ll find a special section with all the details about Space X IPO.
⚖️ Trump alternated between bombing Iran and negotiating peace, then abruptly abandoned the missile diplomacy. After two days of back-and-forth airstrikes, he threatened to take total control of Iran’s oil industry before canceling scheduled attacks by lunchtime in Washington.
🌏 South Korea took the lead with a massive 8% increase, and Japan’s Nikkei surged by 3. 5%. European markets are expected to rise nearly 2% at the opening, with Wall Street futures contributing to a solid overnight gain.
❓ A former Trump administration official questioned the logic, asking what the bombing was meant to achieve and noting it did not seem to align with making meaningful gains or weakening Iran enough to force it to the table.
🛡️ U.S. defense officials are questioning how long forces can remain in the region. Aircraft carriers, destroyers, and thousands of Marines have been deployed for months but cannot stay forever.
🛢️ Trump threatened to seize Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export node, but analysts doubt it would succeed. The Pentagon has plans ready but the operation would require ground troops, further risking lives in an unpopular war. Destroying the facility would serve no tactical purpose that the blockade is not already achieving and would likely spike oil prices further.
📞 Senior leaders from Qatar, the UAE, and Pakistan made last-ditch calls to President Trump on Thursday, June 11, 2026, after he threatened to hit Iran “very hard tonight.” They assured him a preliminary agreement was within reach, convincing him to pull back.
📣 Trump announced on Truth Social that a deal could be signed as early as this weekend and told reporters that a great settlement had been made and should be finalized in the coming days.
⚠️ The ascendancy came at a cost. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been drawn down to 349.2 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983. Critics question whether short-term energy dominance is worth the long-term strategic losses, including depleting the reserve that underwrites the petrodollar system and failing to significantly bring down domestic pump prices.
🧾 Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said large parts of the negotiating text have been finalized but Iran would not compromise on its red lines and has not yet reached a final conclusion on an agreement. U.S. and Arab officials were cautiously optimistic but many diplomats remained skeptical.
🔒 It remains unclear whether Supreme Leader Khamenei has signed off. U.S. officials say he is injured, hiding underground without access to technology, and it takes days for him to comment on proposals.
💰 According to Politico, the negotiations have included discussions on giving Iran access to restricted funds held in Qatar that could total more than 16 billion dollars. A U.S. nod could allow workarounds for limited purchases without technically violating American sanctions. Rubio said no sanctions relief would be granted upfront for reopening Hormuz, only in follow-on talks on nuclear restrictions.
🤝 Netanyahu expressed appreciation for Trump’s commitment that the final deal would include the removal of enriched material, dismantlement of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran’s support for regional proxies.
🇮🇷 It is hard to imagine that Iran – a country capable of striking Israel this very Monday, for the first time without having been attacked first, and which clearly sees how it has thrown the world’s energy supply into disarray – would give in to the demands of its eternal enemy, Israel.
Diving a bit deeper into the oil.
📉 Oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels since April, when Trump announced a ceasefire. This is the umpteenth time Trump has announced that he has reached an agreement, but this time he has said it will be signed this weekend; let’s hope that’s the case. The price of Brent crude has fallen by more than 6% since yesterday and is still falling at the moment.
🚢 Frontline CEO Lars Barstad said oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz should increase quickly if the U.S. and Iran reach a credible deal. The minute the threat of attack on shipping is lifted, transits will resume fairly fast.
⚓ Tanker owners are positioning vessels close to the Gulf to be ready for a reopening. Barstad described holding a ship near the region as like holding a call option on something that might happen, though Frontline itself has not done so.
🏭 Gulf states are desperate to export because their storage is full and the disruption has been a huge cash drain.
😤 The pattern of dashed hopes is frustrating the industry. Every weekend brings claims that a solution is close, and every Monday brings disappointment. Shippers will eventually grow tired and decide whether to send their tankers elsewhere if no deal materializes.
🧭 About half the ships currently transiting Hormuz use the route designated by Iran, while the rest sail through the southern route near Oman.
The World Bank issues a warning.
📊 The Reuters report on the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, released yesterday, indicates that the ongoing Middle East conflict, especially the Iran war, is negatively affecting the global economy. The World Bank has lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5%, the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
🔻 In a severe scenario, growth could drop to 1.3% due to energy disruptions. Higher inflation and increased borrowing costs are expected, particularly impacting the MENAAP region with growth forecasts cut to around 1.6%. The report emphasizes the need for effective policy responses to address these economic challenges.
ECB moved forwards.
📈 The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, its first hike since 2023, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25 percent. The move was driven by inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict pushing up energy prices.
📉 Despite hot inflation and the ECB hike, both stocks and bonds rallied. The dominant driver was the Trump de-escalation on Iran, which reduced geopolitical risk and oil prices, creating a risk-on environment with lower yields.
Central banks around the world raise rates.
🇦🇺 Australia’s Reserve Bank raised rates three times this year to 4.35 percent, the highest in the G10. Norway’s central bank increased its policy rate to 4.25 percent in May.
🇬🇧 The Bank of England is expected to hold at 3.75 percent but could raise rates by September. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its rate in June, with a potential rise by October.
🇳🇿 New Zealand may increase rates from 2.25 percent in July. Canada held its rate at 2.25 percent, while the European Central Bank raised rates to 2.25 percent.
🇸🇪 Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to hold at 1.75 percent.
🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan may raise its rate from 0.75 percent next week.
🇨🇭 Switzerland maintains a zero percent rate, with no changes expected.
📉 Real Interest Types negative: Most importantly, two of the world’s largest economic blocs, the US and Europe, currently have negative real interest rates, as their inflation rates already exceed nominal rates. If the inflationary pressures caused by the war do not abate, they will be forced to raise interest rates.
⚙️ Economies are beginning to feel the pinch. Japan’s industrial production figures, released early this morning, came in below expectations at 0.5% compared to a forecast of 0.8%, though this represents a recovery from -0.4%. As we explained, Asia, the region most affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has increased its industrial activity amid fears of an imminent fuel shortage: let us produce today what we may not be able to produce tomorrow, given energy costs.
SpaceX’s IPO: a speculative bet.
💸 The offering values the company at $1.77 trillion while it carries a net loss of $4.9 billion and trades at 95 times trailing revenue.
🔍 The valuation gap is described as indefensible. Morningstar estimates fair value at $780 billion, more than 50 percent below the IPO price. Bear case scenarios range down to $63 billion. SpaceX trades at more than three times the revenue multiple of Nvidia while posting negative margins.
🌐 Starlink is identified as the only genuinely profitable segment, with $11.4 billion in revenue and a 38.6 percent operating margin. May be Starlink alone justifies perhaps 300 to 400 billion dollars in valuation, but it is being used as a loss leader to fund speculative bets elsewhere.
🚚 The Space Launch segment lost $657 million on $4.1 billion in revenue. Starship remains under development and has never successfully landed and reflown commercially.
🤖 The AI division burned $6.4 billion on just $3.2 billion in revenue, spending two dollars for every dollar earned. The business model of space-based data centers is unproven, and the report suggests the division may serve as a vehicle for Elon Musk’s xAI ambitions cross-subsidized by Starlink cash flow.
👤 Governance is described as a personality cult rather than a public company. Musk owns 42 percent of equity but controls up to 85 percent of voting power through a dual-class share structure. Board oversight is structurally neutered. Money to Musk’s pocket.
🏛️ A large retail allocation, fast-track Nasdaq index inclusion, and tiered lockup schedules all work to support early trading and insider exit valuations while exposing retail investors to concentrated risk.
📈 The bull case requires flawless execution across all fronts. Starship must achieve full reusability, orbital data centers must attract paying customers, and Starlink must grow to hundreds of millions of users. The current valuation leaves zero margin for error.
📉 In short, fair value is estimated at 400 to 800 billion dollars, implying a potential decline of 55 to 77 percent.
Market View.
🗞️ Trump announces an agreement with Iran once more — let us hope it is true this time. The result is that crude oil prices have collapsed, with spot Brent falling to $88.50, levels not seen since the drop triggered by the ceasefire announcement in April.
💪 US futures quickly regained their bullish momentum after Trump’s announcements. S&P 500 futures managed to recover above 7,400 points, although they are currently struggling to hold that level. Nasdaq 100 futures did the same above 29,500 points, which they too are now struggling to hold.
🚀 SpaceX’s IPO launches today amid a turbulent and highly volatile market — it could not have picked a better moment.
💱 The US Dollar Index (DXY) pulled back from the more-than-100 points reached during yesterday’s session and is now trading at 99.80 points. This caused volatility in the forex market, with EUR/USD rising to 1.1590 before retreating to the current 1.1565. GBP/USD managed to break above 1.3430 but has since pulled back again to 1.34.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures also took advantage of the optimism. DAX 40 futures surpassed 24,600, and Euro Stoxx 50 futures exceeded 6,150 points. In both cases, markets are now on standby, watching for the next developments.
🥇 Gold futures recovered some of their losses, approaching $4,300/oz, but have fallen back again in recent hours to around $4,200/oz.
₿ Bitcoin is still failing to break its new resistance at $63,800, from where it has retreated in recent hours to the current $62,860.
