Market Report.
📅 This is the final markets report of 2025. We will return on 9 January next year.
🙏 Thanks to all our readers who stayed loyal to this report in 2025. We have grown considerably and we hope to make 2026 even bigger than 2025, with our utmost effort to bring you the key stories the mainstream media aren’t covering, and the most useful, effective information to optimise your portfolio and investments. Thank you all and happy year.
📰 And now, on to the news:
📉 Yesterday, the price of precious metals experienced a significant correction. The demand for more collateral in contracts may have caused a stifling effect for some simple profit collection.
🥈 Silver prices steadied after experiencing their biggest one-day drop in over five years, falling 9% on Monday. The white metal is currently trading above $71 an ounce. Gold prices also pulled back, declining 4.4% in the previous session, but are holding around $4,340 an ounce.
📊 The sharp declines in precious metals were attributed to profit-taking by traders after a powerful year-end rally, as well as thin market liquidity exacerbating the price swings. Despite the pullback, gold and silver remain on track for their best annual performances since 1979, supported by factors like high central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
🏦 The Central Bank of China (PBOC) seems to be holding on and not moving in monetary policy.
🇨🇳 Despite expectations for significant interest rate cuts, China’s central bank – the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) – has kept a relatively tight monetary policy in 2025, delivering only a 10 basis point cut to its policy rate. This is the least amount of easing the PBOC has delivered annually since 2021, falling far short of Wall Street forecasts for up to 40 basis points of cuts.
📉 The PBOC has opted for a “moderately loose” monetary stance, in contrast to the aggressive easing seen from other major central banks like the Fed, ECB, and BOJ. Instead of broad rate cuts, the PBOC has focused on less conventional measures like liquidity injections and bond purchases to support the economy.
⚠️ The PBOC seems wary of pushing rates too low, fearing it could fuel financial instability. Fiscal policy is expected to play a larger role in supporting the economy going forward.
💱 The Chinese yuan has strengthened beyond the key 7-per-dollar level in the more tightly controlled onshore market for the first time since 2023, signaling China’s comfort with further currency appreciation. The yuan rose as much as 0.1% to 6.9960 in local trading, after the People’s Bank of China set a weaker daily reference rate.
🌏 This move comes after the offshore yuan had already breached the 7 level in late December. Beijing has been steering the yuan toward appreciation to appease trading partners (US), but has sought to engineer a gradual pace of gains to avoid a surge of hot-money inflows.
🚢 According to Bloomberg, China and Russia have created a clandestine operation involving shell companies and high-seas maneuvers to circumvent sanctions on Russian gas exports. This “shadow fleet” of LNG tankers is helping keep the Sino-Russian energy trade afloat. The operation hit a milestone in August 2025 when China became the first country to import sanctioned Russian LNG with the help of these shadow vessels.
🛢️ While the US has quickly sanctioned vessels involved in the illicit oil trade, it has been slower to act against those in the LNG shadow network, which China appears to be leveraging to deepen ties with Russia.
🏠 The real estate market in London could be going backwards, with all the consequences that this may have on real estate funds.
🇬🇧 London’s “stockbroker belt” in the South East of England suffered the biggest house price declines in the UK in 2025. The West Sussex town of Crawley and High Wycombe in Buckinghamshire saw the largest drops, with average home values falling by £35,000 or more (8.9% and 7.4% respectively).
📍 This contrasts with strong house price growth in many northern regions of the UK, as well as Scotland and Northern Ireland. Factors contributing to the underperformance of the South East and London include affordability issues, stamp duty increases, tax changes affecting landlords and overseas buyers, and the lingering effects of Brexit.
🛒 Additionally, the UK may be experiencing a decline in consumption.
💳 According to Barclays data, UK shoppers’ spending on debit and credit cards dropped 0.2% in 2025 compared to 2024, marking the first decline since the pandemic in 2020.
📉 This sharp slowdown from the 1.6% growth seen in 2024 reflects weakening household spending amid high inflation, rising unemployment, and political uncertainty. The data confirms a drag on the UK economy’s growth, as subdued consumption and high savings have been a major headwind.
🔄 A recovery in consumer spending is seen as vital for the UK to achieve even the modest economic growth forecasted in the coming years.
Geopolitics:
✈️ According to Reuters, the Pentagon awarded Boeing a $8.6 billion contract to manufacture 25 F-15 fighters for Israel.
🤝 The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago was warm in tone last Sunday, but did not result in any major breakthroughs on a peace deal. The two leaders said they made “a lot of progress” and are 90% agreed on a “peace framework”, including on security guarantees for Ukraine. However, major sticking points remain.
🇪🇺 The US and European leaders, including Macron, Starmer, and Merz, were briefed on the talks.
🚨 Yesterday, Russia claims that Ukraine attacked President Putin’s state residence in the Novgorod region with drones; Minister Lavrov said there will be a tough response and that the Russian negotiating position will be reviewed by Kiev’s alleged “state terrorism”.
💬 Trump said to Putin after the attack: “Thank God we did not give Zelensky Tomahawk missiles”, and Putin’s advisor Yuri Ushakov stated that Trump was “shocked and outraged” by the attack.
⚔️ The lords of war remain concerned, looking for ways to dynamite peace negotiations. The European arms industry is falling apart as progress is made towards an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Among European defense stocks, Germany’s Rheinmetall slid 3.4%, Hensoldt fell 3.2%, Renk dropped 2.5% and Leonardo declined 4.7% in Milan.
📉 Germany’s arms export approvals to Ukraine experienced a sharp 86% drop in 2025, falling to €1.14 billion compared to €8.15 billion the previous year. This reflects a broader decline in Germany’s overall arms exports, which are down from a record €12.15 billion in 2024 to €8.4 billion so far this year.
🚚 Meanwhile, Norway has become Germany’s largest arms export destination, with around €1.31 billion in approvals, mainly for tanks and submarines. Exports to Turkey have also seen a significant increase, including the long-delayed sale of 20 Eurofighter jets.
Market View.
📉 US futures continue to edge lower after the highs reached last Friday in the S&P 500. S&P 500 futures are trading around 6,950 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures stand near 25,725 points.
💵 The US dollar remains at levels similar to yesterday, holding above 98 points on the DXY index. EUR/USD remains above 1.1770, although it has retreated from the 1.18 level reached last week.
🇪🇺 In European equities, optimism appears to prevail despite recent volatility. DAX 40 futures are trading above 24,500 points, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are hovering close to 5,800 points, currently around 5,780.
🛢️ Crude oil has strengthened again following last week’s decline, with spot Brent trading around $61.55 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures have fallen by almost 6% so far this week, dropping sharply from the highs above $4,550 per ounce to around $4,320. However, in recent hours prices have recovered, with gold now trading near $4,385 per ounce. We discuss this move in more detail in the News section. Silver experienced similar corrective moves.
₿ Bitcoin remains unable to make meaningful progress, but at least appears to be building a solid base above $87,500, with aspirations to break higher towards the $90,000 level, which has already been tested several times.
