Market Report.
📰 Donald Trump has been president for 100 days now, and most of the US financial media are taking stock. The dollar is among the biggest losers, which is not necessarily a bad thing for Donald Trump, who wanted to weaken it to boost US competitiveness.
📉 CNBC has done a list of the worst and the best stock performances since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The worst performers include: Deckers Outdoor (-48%) – Concerns over tariffs impacting their China/Vietnam manufacturing, Tesla (-33%) – Concerns over tariffs and CEO Elon Musk’s support for Trump, Delta and United Airlines (both over -36%) – Weakening consumer confidence and concerns about reduced business travel.
📈 The best performers include: Palantir (+57%) – Seen as a “Trump trade” benefiting from the administration’s government efficiency initiatives, Netflix (+28%) – Largely unaffected by tariffs, Defensive stocks like Philip Morris (+40%) and AT&T (+20%).
🏛️ The White House is hosting an “Investing in America” event on Wednesday, with CEOs and senior executives from major companies like Nvidia, Johnson & Johnson, Hyundai, Toyota, and SoftBank expected to attend. The White House touted investment commitments from companies like TSMC, Apple, and Roche as demonstrating “resounding confidence” in the U.S. economy under the Trump administration.
🚗 Trump has said he is considering granting automakers relief from new auto tariffs and has announced a $500 billion private-sector investment plan for AI infrastructure. Last month, Hyundai announced a $21 billion investment in the U.S., including a new $5.8 billion steel plant in Louisiana.
💻 IBM has announced a $150 billion investment in the U.S. over the next 5 years, including more than $30 billion to advance American manufacturing of its mainframe and quantum computers. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said this investment will ensure IBM remains the “epicenter of the world’s most advanced computing and AI capabilities.” This follows a similar announcement from IBM competitor Nvidia, which plans to produce up to $500 billion of AI infrastructure in the U.S. over the next 4 years.
🇨🇳 China has once again denied that it is in talks to resolve the ongoing trade war with the United States. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated clearly that “China and the U.S. are not engaged in any consultation or negotiation on tariffs.” Guo also appeared to reject Trump’s claim that Chinese President Xi Jinping had recently called him.
🤝 However, some U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Rollins, have suggested that negotiations are ongoing between the two countries. Bessent said the U.S. has a “process in place” and believes the Chinese tariffs are “unsustainable,” predicting a “de-escalation” in the “very near future.” But when pressed, Bessent declined to provide specifics, saying he would not negotiate through the press.
📢 Scott Bessent also said during a TV interview that the responsibility for reaching a trade agreement is on China, stating: “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, and so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable.”
✋ China has consistently demanded that the U.S. cancel all unilateral tariff measures before any resolution can be reached.
💶 According to Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council: The ECB still has room to lower borrowing costs further, despite the current inflation rate being close to the 2% target. Villeroy de Galhau said there will be “neither extra inflation this year nor next year” in Europe. Regarding economic growth, he said there are some positive aspects for France, but there is “probably a trend for a slowdown.” However, the Bank of France’s central scenario remains an “exit from inflation without recession” for both France and Europe.
⚡ Yesterday, Spain, Portugal, and much of France lost their entire electricity supply on a large scale. This was the third prophecy of the World Economic Forum, which likes to make predictions of dystopian scenarios that later come true: such as the pandemic, climate catastrophes, and now, the great blackout.
🌐 Initial suspicions for many were that this was a cyberattack affecting the electrical infrastructure of these countries, but the governments have not yet confirmed that this was the case.
⚙️ Spain’s Prime Minister said the country “lost” 15GW of electricity generation in just 5 seconds (A principle of physics states that energy does not disappear, it is only transferred. Where did it go?), equivalent to 60% of national demand. The outage brought the two countries to a standstill, grounding planes, halting public transport, and forcing hospitals to suspend routine operations.
🔌 The precise trigger for the power outage across the Iberian Peninsula has not been determined, but significant fluctuations in electricity supply might have triggered the transmission system’s breakdown — an issue that raises concerns as the European Union accelerates its transition to renewable energy sources. During periods of exceptional solar or wind conditions, the influx of low-cost energy can overwhelm the existing infrastructure, straining outdated power networks.
Geopolitics:
☮️ Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared a 3-day ceasefire in the war with Ukraine from May 8-10, coinciding with celebrations for the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II. The White House said President Trump wants a permanent ceasefire, not just a temporary pause. The U.S. has threatened to abandon peace efforts without real progress.
🇷🇺 Russia says it wants direct talks with Ukraine “without preconditions,” including demands like demilitarizing and “de-Nazifying” Ukraine, as well as recognizing Russian occupation of Ukrainian regions. The announcement comes after a call between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, where the need to end the war was discussed.
Market View:
📊 US futures have surpassed the highs reached weeks ago, driven by the euphoria generated by the postponement of tariffs. Mini S&P 500 futures are currently at 5,555 points. Meanwhile, Mini Nasdaq 100 futures are following the same trend and are currently above 19,540 points. Both indices appear to be forming an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, which, if confirmed, could trigger a strong upward movement.
🇪🇺 In Europe, despite the chaos caused by the energy blackout in several countries, markets have remained stable. DAX 40 futures are currently trading at 22,485 points, while EuroStoxx 50 futures have already reached 5,120 points.
💵 The dollar index (DXY), which had begun to approach 100 points of recovery, fell again during yesterday’s session, momentarily losing 99 points and currently trading at 99.20 points. This movement allowed the euro-dollar pair to once again exceed the 1.14 level; however, in the last few hours, it has fallen back to 1.1390.
🛢️ The crude oil market has continued to cool, with Brent crude approaching $64 per barrel. This slowdown could be motivated by the announcement of a ceasefire in Ukraine.
🪙 Gold futures also rebounded during yesterday’s session, reaching $3,350 per ounce. However, in recent hours they have fallen back and are currently trading at $3,325.
💻 Finally, Bitcoin continues to show strength. During yesterday’s session, it briefly exceeded $95,000, currently standing at $94,725.
