📰 Market Report.
📉 The absence of a definitive deal to end the conflict in Ukraine may have disappointed the markets.
💬 For some, the victory of last week’s meeting rests exclusively with Putin, as he has overcome the barrier of isolation imposed on him by Western countries. However, no significant agreements have been reported so far. The White House clarified last week that this meeting was an exercise in listening to foster understanding between the parties, anticipating that an agreement might be far from being reached.
🗣️ President Putin declared after the talks ended: “Today, President Trump is saying that if he was the President back then, there would be no war, and I’m quite sure that it would indeed be so…I can confirm that”.
🔙 After President Putin returned to Moscow, this report details, Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev posted the assessment: “A full-fledged mechanism for high-level meetings between Russia and the US has been restored…It is peaceful, free of ultimatums or threats”.
🔙 After President Putin returned to Moscow, Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev posted the assessment: “A full-fledged mechanism for high-level meetings between Russia and the US has been restored…It is peaceful, free of ultimatums or threats”.
🌍 European leaders, including the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Finland, the EU, and NATO, will travel to Washington to meet with President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. A major focus of the talks will be security guarantees for Ukraine, including the potential role the U.S. could play. This could be modeled on NATO’s Article 5, but provided directly by individual countries rather than the alliance.
🇺🇦 Zelensky noted that Ukraine’s constitution forbids surrendering territory, and he would face significant domestic pushback if he ceded land that Russia has not been able to conquer militarily. However, it is also true that according to the constitution, Zelensky has no longer been the legitimate leader of Ukraine due to his term ending and his failure to call new elections.
📰 And what does the Russian press think about this? They claim that the European Union has been relegated to running behind the U.S. and pleading with President Trump to allow Ukrainian President Zelensky a say in any Russia-Ukraine war resolution negotiations. The EU has tried to use the same rhetoric about Russia’s threat to Western Europe to justify boosting its own weapons industry, but this narrative is no longer resonating even with U.S. officials. The EU is lacking agency and relevance, reduced to being a “subcontractor” forced to implement someone else’s blueprint, rather than a co-architect of global policy.
📊 The Jackson Hole Symposium this week will be the most significant event on the economic front. “Labour Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy” will be the event’s official theme. The Federal Reserve’s potential indications regarding potential interest rate decreases are highly anticipated. Although some analysts caution that Powell may continue to adopt a cautious stance, the market is speculating about directions for rate reduction in September and the fourth quarter. The event’s pivotal point will be Jerome Powell’s address on Saturday, August 23, which has the power to influence global market trends.
📈 In anticipation of central bank rate reduction, investors have shifted into riskier assets. Stocks may fall if Powell adopts a moderate posture during the conference. Powell’s address, which is anticipated to be less precise than his unequivocal signals from the previous year, could put a stop to conjecture.
📉 Market View:
😞 The markets open cold and perhaps disappointed by the lack of a final agreement to end the war in Ukraine. The Mini S&P 500 futures are trading at 6,465 points, while the Nasdaq 100 futures are at 23,800 points.
💵 The dollar index (DXY) continues to indicate weakness, trading below 98 points with bearish patterns that could lead to further declines in the coming days. The EUR/USD is gaining strength from this, once again approaching 1.17, which is likely to be surpassed in the coming days if our forecast regarding the dollar is correct.
📉 In Europe, we start the week with declines; the DAX 40 futures have fallen below 24,400 points, and the Eurostoxx 50 futures are retreating after nearing 5,500 points, currently trading at 5,460 points.
📉 The crude oil market remains weak, with Brent crude still trading below $68 following the drop experienced in the second week of August; it is currently at $66 per barrel.
💰 Gold remains in the $3,400 per ounce range, remaining watchful.
📉 Bitcoin has seen declines accumulating since 14 August, bringing it to interesting levels as it loses the support of $116,000, currently trading at $115,525.
