Market Report.
🇺🇸 The United States has given up in its conflict with Iran and has created a memorandum of understanding that is very beneficial to the Islamic Republic. The agreement simply commits Iran to refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons, a position Tehran had previously maintained.
🤝 Trump’s deal-focused, America First pragmatism prioritizes ending the war’s costs, including energy market spikes. Hawkish critics prefer sustained pressure and stronger deterrence.
⛽ The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Cushing crude inventories were heading toward critically low levels that would cause pipeline and storage malfunctions. Trump finally gave way when he understood the U.S. was on the edge of economic collapse compared to Iran.
💰 A reported $300 billion reconstruction fund is part of the arrangement. Reuters describes it as a private investment vehicle, not a reparations program, with no government money or grants. Companies from the U.S., Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America, and Africa have agreed to commit financing for energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transport.
🤫 Two secret deals were reportedly struck during the war. According to Washington Post, and Times of Israel, Qatar approached Tehran at the start of the conflict with a proposal: Iran would spare the Ras Laffan gas facility, and Qatar would halt gas production to drive energy prices higher and pressure the U.S. and Israel to end the war. Separately, Israel Hayom reported that Trump secretly approved a cash arrangement between Qatar and Iran under which billions were paid to Tehran for free passage of Qatari tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
🗞️ The Financial Times reports a deepening public rift between Trump and Netanyahu, centered on the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and Israel’s military operations. Trump was angered by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, including operations in Beirut, which he saw as jeopardizing the Iran talks. He reportedly berated Netanyahu in a tense call, using strong language and calling aspects of Israel’s approach reckless, while publicly asserting that he calls all the shots, not Netanyahu.
🇮🇱 Netanyahu distanced himself from the deal, framing it as Trump’s decision while claiming partnership in the original war aims. In Israel, the agreement is viewed as strategically weakening by giving Iran economic breathing room.
Netanyahu’s political survival is now hanging by a thread.
🗣️ Israel’s media are particularly critical of Netanyahu. The Jerusalem Post quote the former Primer Minister of Israel, Naftali Bennett: ‘Clock for Iran regime change to start as soon as government in Israel changes’. Hardline Israeli politicians erupted in fury over the Trump-brokered U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal. Bennett declared that his term began with a civil war, continued with the October 7 massacre, and ends with a historic failure against Iran.
🔊 National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir stated that Trump’s agreement does not bind Israel, which is an independent and sovereign nation. He insisted on nothing less than the dismantling of Hezbollah and no withdrawal from captured territory. ‘We must continue to demolish their homes in southern Lebanon; we must continue to expel their residents; we must continue to remove Hezbollah terrorists from Lebanon,’ he told the press.
✈️ Ben Gvir recently canceled US trip after embassy demands biometric fingerprinting
⚔️ Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot described an abyss between the government’s empty total victory promises and failed leadership. Yair Golan, leader of The Democrats, described the deal as a strategic disaster engineered while Netanyahu “Netanyahu stands weak, ill, as an isolated and ineffective person.”. He called replacing Netanyahu an existential security imperative.
🌍 Trump has gone from unconditional support for Israel to openly criticising it from France, following the G7 summit. “I tell you what – Israel is fighting Hizbullah too long and too many people are being killed. And you don’t have to knock down an apartment house every time you are looking for somebody. Because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses and not all are Hizbullah. That I can tell you.” Trump said.
🇺🇸 Trump also said yesterday “if it weren’t for the United States, Israel would not exist right now.”
❓ The question is, what will the US now offer Israel to keep it in check and prevent the war between Iran and Israel from flaring up again? Trump may have a proposal in this regard: Trump announced that the U.S. could be activating the Syrian government to target Hezbollah, rather than relying on Israel for that role. “I suggested to Israel to let Syria take care of Hezbollah; I think they would do a better job,” Trump said.
🔥 Trump is also facing harsh criticism within the US following the deal with Iran. A rift emerged between President Trump and his own ambassador, Mike Huckabee, who openly broke with the administration’s stance on Israel. Huckabee declared: “Without Israel, there would not be an America.” He added: “We owe our very existence to what happened in this land.”
📰 The WSJ reports that many hawkish neoconservatives who initially supported President Trump during the early stages of the 2026 Iran conflict are now expressing concerns about his preliminary deal with Iran.
📉 The deal is seen by some as too concessional. It includes an extended ceasefire, immediate Iranian oil export waivers, a potential $300 billion development fund, and access to frozen assets, while deeper nuclear talks are deferred for 60 days.
Now, the key topic this week, the Fed.
🏦 Today, the Fed is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged and alter its post-meeting statement to remove the suggestion that the next move will be a cut. An upward drift in rate-path projections would underscore the committee’s openness to a hike, even if most still do not expect one.
📈 Most Fed policymakers are expected to signal they will hold short-term interest rates steady all year. A small number may pencil in a rate hike to prevent the inflation spike from becoming entrenched in the economy.
📊 Projections for unemployment and inflation are likely to show greater optimism on jobs and more pessimism on prices. The year-end core inflation forecast is expected to rise above the 2.7 percent projected in March.
🗣️ According to Reuters, Warsh is expected to echo his predecessor’s view that economic forecasts are often wrong and the dots are neither predictions nor promises. He will likely try to put some distance between himself and Powell, who remains on the board as a governor.
🧾 Warsh said he does not believe the Fed’s monetary policy should be dependent on temporary external factors, such as the rise in energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East. This would rule out any potential rate rises this year; the question is whether there is scope for the rate cuts promised to us in December 2025.
Tensions between UK and Russia rising.
🚢 Yesterday, a Russian frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich, fired warning shots at a UK-flagged civilian yacht to prevent a collision near British waters. The Russian Defence Ministry stated that communication attempts with the yacht failed, prompting the warning shots, which included small arms fire. After this, the yacht changed course and moved away.
🌫️ The incident occurred in foggy conditions about 20 nautical miles south of the Isle of Wight, with no injuries reported. The British Ministry of Defence described the incident as isolated, not linked to a recent operation involving the interception of a Russian oil tanker.
The G7 is calling for pre-emptive debt restructuring before crises erupt.
📉 OECD data showed official development assistance dropped by over 23 percent in real terms in 2025 to $174.3 billion. The decline was led by a nearly 57 percent drop in U.S. aid and smaller declines from Germany, France, Britain, and Japan.
🧑💼 A development policy expert expressed to Reuters surprise that the declaration did not address the urgent needs of developing countries caused by the war in the Middle East. He said net energy-importing countries in Asia and Africa need immediate liquidity, fiscal support for imports and fuel subsidies, and long-term development finance.
🏥 Oxfam argued that repurposing aid to provide financial incentives for private investors rather than building public schools and hospitals is the wrong approach.
Some additional details about the BOJ rate hike that we discussed yesterday.
🇯🇵 The BOJ confirmed it would pause its bond buying program starting April 2027, continuing to purchase around 2 trillion yen ($12.5 billion) in Japanese government bonds monthly. The central bank remains cautious of inflationary pressures, especially with a weak yen increasing import costs. Uchida emphasized that the BOJ is prepared for further hikes, possibly by the end of the year if inflation trends upward. The report mentions the potential for another rate increase in October if inflation overshoots.
Corporate News.
💼 Today, seven technology companies account for 30 per cent of the S&P 500’s weighting; during the dot-com bubble, five of these companies accounted for 15 per cent of the S&P 500. The concentration of capital in a single sector and group of companies is already more than double what it was during that bubble. However, it is also true that AI is not the same as the e-commerce business, and it drives much more robust demand, linked to the construction of physical infrastructure: data centres that utilise not only microchips but all kinds of hardware, cooling systems, as well as new energy resources.
🔁 The reinvestment ratios of the major tech firms – Meta 54 per cent, Oracle 86 per cent, Microsoft 47 per cent – practically guarantee demand for microchip companies such as AMD, Intel and Broadcom, etc.
🇨🇳 The real risk may well come from China. This could be through a trade war and restrictions on sales to the Chinese market – a huge market for most companies, accounting for 9 per cent of Nvidia’s sales – or through technological disruption, with new advances from China that surpass US technology.
🚀 SpaceX shares rose 4% yesterday, 2026, following the strong IPO, briefly surpassing Microsoft in market cap and overtaking Amazon. The stock had jumped 20% on its first full trading day, reaching a mid-morning market value of $2.94 trillion but closing the day at $2.65 trillion.
💸 SpaceX’s market cap was higher than Amazon’s approximately $2.64 trillion but still trails Apple’s nearly $4.4 trillion. The company announced plans to buy AI startup Cursor for $60 billion, aiming to enhance its competitive edge against key players in the AI field.
📈 Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, indicated a potential revenue target of $1 trillion by 2030, a significant increase from its $18.7 billion revenue in 2025. Analysts express concerns about SpaceX’s high valuation, with CFRA giving it a sell rating due to ambitious growth expectations. Investors are advised to watch for results in the coming quarters to meet growth projections.
🔬 Intel has started production of its most advanced chip, the 18A-P, which is now in “risk production,” indicating early manufacturing progress.
🏭 This development is part of Intel’s strategy to become a leading chip maker for other companies, possibly including Apple.
⚙️ The 18A-P chip is said to improve performance by 9% or reduce power usage by 18% compared to the earlier 18A chip, already in production in Arizona.
🎯 Intel hopes to secure outside customers, with analysts suggesting achieving a 90% yield rate could attract interest.
📈 Shares of Intel have surged over 200% this year, partly due to significant investments from the U.S. government and Nvidia. However, Intel faces challenges in competing with established manufacturers like TSMC, particularly as it has not yet developed chips based on Arm architecture used by companies like Apple.
Market View.
📉 Markets retreat from Monday’s highs. Mini S&P 500 futures pulled back during yesterday’s session below 7,600 points and are now recovering to 7,610 points. Nasdaq 100 futures followed a very similar pattern, falling below 30,300 points, but are now recovering to 30,575 points.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose during yesterday’s session to practically 99.80, after which it has fallen to the current 99.50. This initially caused pullbacks in pairs such as EUR/USD, which fell below 1.16, although it has since recovered to the current 1.1615.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures managed to surpass 25,120 points but later pulled back and are currently trading at 24,870 points. Euro Stoxx 50 futures also managed to surpass 6,290 points yesterday before pulling back, and are now trading at 6,260 points.
🪙 Gold futures remain on standby around the $4,345 per ounce area. Should they break above the $4,400/oz barrier, a new bullish move could begin for gold futures.
🛢️ Crude oil continues to fall, and spot Brent dropped below $78 per barrel in recent hours.
₿ Bitcoin is pulling back slightly from the highs reached on Monday, in a move that could be a pullback before continuing the rally towards $68,800; it is currently trading at $65,470.
