🚀 Market Report.
📈 The first few months of Trump’s presidency caused turmoil in a number of asset classes, and Wall Street banks just reported their highest-ever profits from stock trading as global institutional investors braced for a new government.
💰 Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs all recorded record profits from stock trading in the first quarter, with the first three each making almost $4 billion.
🌍 According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. trading partners to limit their dealings with China. U.S. officials intend to ask more than 70 nations to disallow China from shipping goods through their countries and prevent Chinese firms from being located in their territories to avoid U.S. tariffs.
🤝 U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly joined the tariff talks between the U.S. and Japan, which was seen as a test case for negotiations with over 70 nations seeking better terms on Trump’s tariffs. After the talks, Trump declared “big progress” was made, though the Japanese negotiator Ryosei Akazawa provided few details. Exchange rates, which the Trump administration has accused Japan of manipulating, were not part of the discussions, according to Akazawa.
🇯🇵 The Japanese delegation was led by Ryosei Akazawa, a relatively junior economic revitalization minister, and they had not expected Trump to participate in what they viewed as a fact-finding mission. Akazawa provided few details after the talks, but said the parties agreed to hold a second meeting later this month and that Trump said getting a deal with Japan was a “top priority.”
🇺🇸 Trump suggests this again: ‘There is a possibility that the money from tariffs will be so great that it will replace income tax.’
🇮🇹 The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is also set to meet with Trump today to discuss tariffs imposed on the EU, while the U.S. Treasury Secretary has invited South Korea’s finance minister for talks next week.
📉 The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates for the seventh time today, lowering the deposit rate to 2.25% from 2.5%. Beyond the April rate cut, investors expect at least two more rate cuts by the end of 2026 as the stronger euro helps contain price pressures and the risk of low-cost Chinese goods being diverted to Europe. The ECB’s policy decision and press conference by President Christine Lagarde are unlikely to provide clear indications on the future path of interest rates.
⚠️ Remember, unless there is a significant drop in inflation, which is not the case at the moment, the ECB is running out of ammunition in its rate cuts. The interest rate is approaching the inflation rate, and if it falls below it, real interest rates in Europe will turn negative.
📦 Meanwhile, the outlook for global trade has “deteriorated sharply” and the WTO is forecasting a 0.2% decline in global trade in 2025. This is not mere fearmongering, as there are already signs of the deteriorating trade outlook, with shipping vessels originating from China canceling their journeys.
📊 In its most recent “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics,” the World Trade Organisation cautioned that “a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty has caused the outlook for global trade to deteriorate sharply.”
🚢 The number of canceled sailings of freight vessels out of China is increasing as ocean carriers attempt to manage a pullback in orders due to the U.S.-China trade war and tariffs. Major ocean freight alliances have suspended or canceled routes from China to North America, resulting in a decline of 640,000-800,000 containers. As Chinese trade comes under strain, Vietnam is seeing a surge in ocean freight rates, indicating a shift in global supply chain dynamics. Ocean carriers are using various measures to adjust capacity, such as canceling sailings, using smaller vessels, or slowing down ships, which could impact overall pricing in the ocean freight business.
⚡ Siemens Energy reported its best profit margin since being spun off from Siemens nearly five years ago, citing a strong performance across all of its business areas. Siemens Energy’s second-quarter profit before special items increased more than five-fold to 906 million euros, resulting in a margin of 9.1% – the highest since the company was spun off. Siemens Energy had previously warned that it expected a hit from U.S. tariffs, but noted it was too early to quantify the impact and that it would pass on price increases to customers.
📉 As incredible as it may seem, a Europe with the worst macroeconomic data in decades is benefiting from the fall in American assets. Last week, German bonds outperformed Treasuries by the largest margin in history, and the euro is at its best level in three years. Even the stock of European businesses is holding up better than that of their counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic.
🌍 Geopolitics.
🔋 Ukraine and the United States have made “substantial progress” in their talks on a minerals deal and will sign a memorandum in the near future, according to Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking this bilateral minerals deal as part of his push to end Ukraine’s war against the Russian invasion, as well as a way to recover billions of dollars the U.S. has spent on military assistance to Ukraine. The United States has reduced its cost estimate for the assistance provided to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022 to about $100 billion from $300 billion, according to Bloomberg News.
🧭 Cem Gurdeniz, the strategist behind Turkiye’s Blue Homeland doctrine, has been quoted by The Cradle newspaper in a shocking interview. Gurdeniz believes the western-led global order is undergoing a systemic collapse, with NATO’s defeat in Ukraine marking the “end of an illusion” about western military dominance. He sees the Trump administration’s strategy as one of retrenchment and preparation for great power rivalry with China, rather than continued global control.
🧩 Gurdeniz argues NATO is now a “zombie alliance” that lacks coherence without US leadership, and the EU is pushing military buildup while struggling with internal decay. He advocates for Turkiye to pursue “assertive non-alignment”, cooperating with both the West and rising Eurasian powers, while refusing to be a satellite of any bloc.
🌾 Gurdeniz believes Turkiye’s economic future lies in reindustrialization, food/energy sovereignty, and regional trade in local currencies, rather than reliance on foreign investment and EU integration. He rejects the EU’s claims of being a “values-based” project, seeing it as a power play to maintain Turkiye as a buffer zone, refugee warehouse, and source of cheap labor.
📊 Market View:
🌞 The day begins in Europe with markets appearing positive and calm. US futures are advancing in positive territory in the last few hours after yesterday’s declines. Mini S&P 500 futures, which fell to 5,250 points yesterday, are now advancing towards 5,350 points. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures, which yesterday approached 18,115 points, are currently advancing above 18,550 points.
📈 In Europe, the DAX 40 is approaching 21,500 points and will have to face the resistance left behind by last week’s euphoria at 21,600 points. EuroStoxx 50 futures are also advancing and approaching 4,900 points, but they will also have to overcome the resistance marked last week at around 5,000 points.
💵 The dollar index, which yesterday approached 99.15 points due to its weakening, is now rebounding and is close to 99.70 points. The euro-dollar, which yesterday rose above 1.14 again, is currently falling back towards 1.1350.
📉 The US 10-year bond premium is returning to calm, falling almost 7% from last week’s highs to currently stand at 4.315%.
🛢️ The bullish patterns we mentioned in recent reports for crude oil seem to be activating. Brent crude has exceeded $65 a barrel and is currently trading at $66.37.
🪙 Gold has reached a new high, with futures trading above $3,370 in recent hours, currently retreating towards $3,345.
💻 Bitcoin is attempting to consolidate above $83,000, although it still needs to break through the $90,000 to $92,000 range to break out of the area where it has been stuck for weeks.
