Market Report.
⏳ Remember that 48 hours after the conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran began, we stated in this report that Operation Epic Fury was actually an “Epic Fail.” And indeed, three weeks later, that is how many Western media outlets are describing it.
📅 Week Ahead: Top 3 Risks, Fed Decision & Dots (Wed); BoE, BoJ, ECB & SNB Decisions (Thu) & US PPI Inflation Data (Wed).
❓ Does the U.S. have a clear objective in this war? Or did they simply jump into this adventure because Israel was going to do it anyway, as Marc Rubio told the press?
🧩 I have compilated a series of public contradictions we have witnessed in recent days, as proof that the U.S. does not have a clear agenda in the conflict, and therefore, without clear objectives, the end of the war is unclear as well.
🗓️ March 9, Trump said: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much — they have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force…” He also added “We took a little excursion… I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion.”
🗓️ March 10, He said the “excursion” is “very much complete.”
🗓️ March 13, Trump said: The US has “unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition.” “Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is no longer, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth,”
🌍 However, parallel to these statements, Trump was also demanding ‘about 7’ countries to join coalition to police Iran’s Strait of Hormuz. “I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory, because it is their own territory,” He said.
📌 Despite this, this is the official response of each of the countries mentioned to date:
🇩🇪 Germany: Declined to participate. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated, “Will we soon be an active part of this conflict? No.” Chancellor Friedrich Merz also rejected a military operation, emphasizing Germany is “not part of this war and we don’t want to be.”
🇫🇷 France: Conditional. President Emmanuel Macron discussed a possible mission with partners but stressed it could only happen when “circumstances permit” and after fighting has subsided.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed the “importance of reopening the strait” with Trump, but the UK made no pledge of ships. UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband suggested ending the war was the “best and surest” way to resolve the shipping crisis.
🇯🇵 Japan: Declined to send forces. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated, “We have not made any decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships.” Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi confirmed Tokyo is “not currently considering” such an operation.
🇦🇺 Australia: Declined to send a ship. Transport Minister Catherine King said, “We won’t be sending a ship to the Strait of Hormuz… that’s not something we’ve been asked or that we’re contributing to.”
🇰🇷 South Korea: The Foreign Ministry said it “takes note” of Trump’s call and “will closely coordinate and carefully review” the situation with the U.S.
🇨🇳 China: Non-committal / Vague. Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu stated that “all parties have the responsibility to ensure stable and unimpeded energy supply” and that China would “strengthen communication with relevant parties” for de-escalation.
🌐 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of the UK and GCC members affirmed that GCC states “have the right to take all necessary measures to defend their security,” without committing to the US-led coalition.
🛡️ Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says the attack on Iran is illegal, NATO should stay out of it, and there is no guarantee the alliance will survive Trump’s presidency.
⚠️ Considering these facts, President Trump has warned NATO that it faces a “very bad” future if US allies fail to assist in opening up the Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial global oil chokepoint.
🤨 Trump is pessimistic that US allies will heed his pleas for help, criticizing NATO as a “one-way street” where the US helps but allies do not reciprocate.
🚢 Trump wants allies to send minesweepers and military forces to “knock out some bad actors” along the Iranian coast making “a nuisance” in the Gulf.
🤝 Trump is also pressuring China to help unblock the Strait before his planned summit with President Xi Jinping, threatening to delay the trip if China does not cooperate.
🚦 Meanwhile, Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is open to all countries except the United States, Israel, and their allies. They also said a few days ago that any country that expelled Israel’s ambassador and diplomatic staff (a country that attacked Iran) would be allowed to pass freely through the strait.
🎭 False flag attacks?
📰 At the start of the conflict, we heard U.S. journalist Tucker Carlson suggest that attacks were being carried out against Gulf countries whose perpetrators were unclear, and that these might be attempts to frame them as Iranian attacks in order to draw these countries into the conflict.
🚁 In this regard, one of the drone attacks during the first week of the conflict, on a British military base in Cyprus, was attributed to Iran by the media, but according to the UK defense minister, the drone was similar to those used by Iran, but it was NOT an Iranian drone—so who sent it?
🇹🇷 Turkey has already suffered several missile attacks, but Iran has publicly stated that they are not attacking Turkey and have no intention of doing so. Erdogan said they “would not fall into the trap.” What was he referring to?
🧨 Turkey is a key country in the region, and moreover it is a NATO member, an attack on Turkey attributed to Iran could serve to activate Article 5 and force all NATO members to intervene in the conflict.
🪤 It’s not just the allied nations that seem to be leaving Trump to fend for himself in this war; as we’ve noted in previous reports, it appears to be a trap set for Trump and could spell the end of his political career.
🇺🇸 Even within the U.S., it appears to lack support.
🕵️ U.S. intelligence agencies and the Pentagon are contradicting the White House’s narrative regarding the war with Iran, creating an uncomfortable rift for President Trump.
📑 Intelligence reports indicate that Iran’s leadership remains intact and faces no real risk of collapse in the short term, refuting the idea that military pressure could topple the regime.
☢️ The Pentagon has also denied that there was an imminent nuclear threat that would justify the urgency of the attacks.
⚖️ This discrepancy between political rhetoric and security assessments casts doubt on the war’s actual objectives and the prospects for a stable resolution.
🔄 Trump faces the dilemma of either trying to end the conflict quickly or escalating it, with no guarantee of a favorable outcome.
🕊️ The possibility of an agreement with Iran also arises, though it would be difficult for the United States and Israel to accept.
📰 Financial Times reports, citing a U.S. official: This is the right time to declare victory and withdraw from the war.
🏛️ Politics in the U.S. is also in turmoil, following the Epstein earthquake and the Iranian war.
📂 The senator Thomas Massie says the DOJ deleted key Epstein Files before it could expose Israel.
🗳️ Democrats are now expected to win both the US Senate & House after the midterm elections in November. They plan to impeach Trump and remove him from office.
🛢️ What about the oil market and the possible hyperinflation?
💣 The U.S. (in coordination with Israel) carried out major airstrikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, a small island off Iran’s coast that hosts the main terminal for about 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
🎯 The strikes targeted over 90 Iranian military targets on the island, including naval mine depots, missile storage, and other facilities, while deliberately sparing the oil infrastructure.
📣 President Trump has publicly boasted about the “demolition” and “decimation” of Kharg Island, saying the U.S. “totally obliterated” the military sites there. However, he noted the oil facilities were left intact, at least for now.
🔥 Trump has threatened to hit Kharg Island again “just for fun” and warned he would reconsider sparing the oil infrastructure if Iran continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz or interfere with “free safe passage.”
⚡ Iran has vowed retaliation, threatening to turn U.S.-linked oil facilities in the Gulf into “a pile of ashes” if the Kharg oil infrastructure is hit.
🛢️ The targeting of Kharg Island is seen as a strategic move to hit the “beating heart” of Iran’s oil export system militarily, while avoiding an immediate, direct blow to its energy export capacity.
📚 During the 1980–1988 Iran–Iraq War, Iraq repeatedly attacked Kharg Island because it was Iran’s main oil export terminal and a critical economic lifeline. Iraqi air and missile attacks destroyed storage tanks and damaged the oil terminal and loading piers on multiple occasions, but Iran managed to keep significant exports flowing and later rebuilt the infrastructure.
🔁 When Kharg’s facilities were temporarily knocked out, Iran rerouted some exports through smaller terminals like Lavan and Sirri Island, underscoring both Kharg’s centrality and Iran’s determination to sustain oil sales despite the bombardment.
🚨 Trump warns the US is prepared to launch new strikes on Iran’s oil export hub of Kharg Island and target its oil infrastructure if the Strait remains blocked.
Market View.
📈 Risks remain elevated, and the oil market continues to push higher, with spot Brent crude reaching $105.75 per barrel.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) shows little sign of easing and is trading firmly above the 100 level. Currency pairs such as EUR/USD have remained under pressure since losing 1.1450 last Friday and continue to display weakness against the dollar.
📉 In equities, US futures are struggling to recover.
📉 E‑mini S&P 500 futures, which broke below the 6,800 support last week, are continuing to trade lower at around 6,665.
📉 Nasdaq 100 futures are currently trading near 24,515.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures are approaching 23,500, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are holding around 5,735.
⚖️ Overall, equity markets remain cautious and pessimistic, though trading is somewhat paused as investors wait to gauge sentiment at the start of the week.
🥇 Gold futures have fallen back below $5,000 per ounce, pressured by the strengthening dollar.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues its advance, surpassing $74,000 in recent hours and beginning to form clearer bullish structures.
