Market Report.
🌍 Multiple media outlets reported last night that an attack on Iran by the US was imminent. The French, German, and British embassies suspended their services in Iran, and the Iranian government closed its airspace, with several flights turning back as they approached its borders. However, President Trump announced that he seemed satisfied, for the moment, knowing that the Iranian regime had suspended the executions of the rioters.
🕊️ President Trump signaled he might not attack Iran, despite previous threats of “very strong action” against the country. Trump told reporters that “the killing in Iran is stopping” and that there are no plans for executions, suggesting the threat of U.S. military action may be easing.
🗣️ President Trump expressed uncertainty about whether Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi would be able to gain support within Iran to eventually take over the government, despite Pahlavi’s prominence as a voice in the ongoing protests. Trump said Pahlavi “seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country” and questioned whether Iran’s people would accept his leadership.
🛢️ Iran is an OPEC member and a significant crude oil producer, so any disruption to its oil supplies due to the ongoing social unrest could impact global prices.
📉 The impact on the markets has been predictable. Falls in crude oil, which had been rising since Monday, as well as silver and gold. In the case of gold, with much less enthusiasm, as the legal battle between Trump and Powell seems to be sowing doubts about the future of monetary policy and drawing more attention to gold as a safe haven, which remains close to the historic highs reached this week.
🎬 We are only 15 days into 2026, and the cascade of events is worthy of an action movie. Donald Trump captured Venezuela’s president, alarmed European leaders by floating the annexation of Greenland, and imposed 25% tariffs on any country trading with Iran, marking a sharp escalation in U.S. foreign policy.
🧭 The common thread is America’s push to counter China’s dominance in critical resources. Seizing control of Venezuela’s oil industry would limit China’s access to key energy supplies and mining investments. Annexing Greenland could shut rivals out of emerging Arctic trade routes and future mineral extraction. And by imposing tariffs on anyone trading with Iran, the U.S. can pressure both Tehran and China, a major buyer of Iranian oil.
🇬🇱 However, Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has delivered a blunt message to President Trump, stating that Greenland chooses Denmark over the United States. At a joint news conference with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Nielsen said “If we have to choose between the USA and Denmark here and now, we choose Denmark. We choose NATO, the Kingdom of Denmark and the EU.”
📊 Opinion polls have shown that Greenlanders overwhelmingly oppose U.S. control, while supporting independence from Denmark. Denmark has sought to defuse tensions with the Trump administration by investing in Arctic defense, including purchasing additional F-35 fighter jets.
🛡️ Still, president Trump said last night in Truth Social that the United States needs Greenland for national security, calling it vital to the “Golden Dome” defense system the U.S. is building. He argued that NATO should help lead efforts to secure it, warning that “if we don’t, Russia or China will — and that is not going to happen.”
🗣️ Carla Sands, the former U.S. ambassador to Denmark, said that Denmark lacks the capacity to develop Greenland, underscoring arguments from some U.S. officials that Copenhagen is unable to fully invest in or manage the island’s long‑term economic development.
⚔️ The other major geopolitical conflict that remains active is Ukraine. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has arrived in Kyiv, Ukraine for high-level talks, in her first visit to the country since February 2023.
🏦 Georgieva is expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, and central bank chief Andriy Pyshnyi, as well as business executives. In November 2025, Ukraine and the IMF reached a preliminary agreement on an $8.2 billion, four-year lending program, contingent on Ukraine taking certain actions.
💰 Approval of the IMF funding is critical, as it will unlock additional external investments needed to close Ukraine’s financing gaps, estimated at around $136.5 billion through 2029 due to the ongoing war.
🏛️ Leaving the geopolitical topic aside and returning to the dramas of Wall Street, President Trump said he has no immediate plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, despite a Justice Department criminal investigation into Powell. Trump said it is “too early” to say what he will ultimately do regarding Powell, who is currently in a “holding pattern.”
👔 The president suggested he may nominate either former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to replace Powell when his term ends in May. The president also dismissed concerns that eroding the Fed’s independence could undermine the U.S. dollar and spark inflation, saying “I don’t care” about those views.
💬 Trump asserted that a president “should have something to say” about Fed policy, arguing that his business experience gives him a better understanding of it than Powell.
🏠 The UK housing market is showing signs of turning a corner after the November 2025 budget, according to estate agents surveyed by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Agents’ expectations for home sales over the next 3 months surged to the highest level since October 2024, indicating more agents expect an increase than a decline.
📈 Optimism for the year ahead also became more widespread, as easing borrowing costs and an end to budget uncertainty lifted some of the gloom that hung over the market. However, concerns remain over the slow-growing economy and rising unemployment, which have prompted bets on Bank of England interest rate cuts.
🇫🇷 In Europe, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French patriotic Rassemblement National (RN) party, is taking a more conciliatory approach in her appeal of a 5-year election ban over an embezzlement case. This shift in tone comes despite the fact that the legal troubles have not hurt her party’s standing at all.
🗳️ For many, the legal actions against Le Pen were another pretext to prevent the advance of her party, which was clearly unstoppable. In the last elections, she obtained more than 10 million votes, compared to just 6 million for the entire government coalition.
👥 Le Pen appears to have a ready-made heir in the form of Jordan Bardella, who is poised to take over the party leadership. U.S. President Donald Trump and his MAGA supporters will be closely watching the fortunes of their nationalist ally in France, likely with a sense of satisfaction.
🚨 RN is closer to gaining power than many may realize, posing a critical political moment for France and Europe.
💊 Finally, in the corporate world, upcoming arrival of generic versions of Ozempic (semaglutide), the popular diabetes drug that has become a weight loss sensation. Ozempic, made by Novo Nordisk, has become widely associated with weight loss in recent years, used by celebrities and influencers alike.
🌍 However, access to Ozempic has been limited in much of the world outside the US so far.
💡 That is set to change as generic versions of semaglutide start entering the market, which could significantly disrupt the weight loss drug landscape. Generic, regulated versions of semaglutide are expected to be much cheaper than the branded Ozempic, potentially making the drug more widely accessible globally.
📊 Market View.
📉 Weakness continues on Wall Street, driven by the ongoing drama between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell. S&P 500 futures have failed to fully regain bullish momentum and remain below the 7,000‑point level, currently trading around 6,970 points. Nasdaq 100 futures are also struggling to consolidate above 26,000 points, standing at approximately 25,684 points.
💵 The US Dollar Index (DXY), fuelled by growing uncertainty and concerns surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy, continues to push higher and is approaching the 99.30 level. In response, EUR/USD has fallen below 1.1630.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures have stalled since Tuesday and are now trading below 25,500 points. Euro Stoxx 50 futures, however, remain more resilient, holding above 6,050 points with a generally optimistic tone.
🛢️ Crude oil prices have fallen sharply after fears of a potential US attack on Iran were dismissed in recent hours. Brent crude has dropped by roughly 5% from the highs reached on Wednesday to the subsequent lows, with spot prices now around $64.30 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures remain range‑bound, consolidating around the $4,600 per ounce level.
Silver prices have retreated, with spot silver trading below $89.30 per ounce.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to make gradual progress and build confidence. It moved close to the $98,000 level yesterday afternoon before easing back to around $96,530..
