Market Report.
🏦 Deep divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee. The lack of official government data due to the shutdown has further complicated the Fed’s decision-making process.
💬 A growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling reticence on further interest rate cuts, which has pushed the market-based odds of a rate cut in December below 50%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who previously supported more rate cuts, now say they have an open mind or are on the fence about another reduction.
📉 Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she sees a “relatively high bar” for additional easing, citing resilience in the labor market and limited inflation data due to the government shutdown. Other Fed officials like St. Louis President Musalem and Vice Chair Jefferson have also expressed caution about further rate cuts.
💻 This is coupled with growing fears that the technology sector will not be able to meet its investment expectations, along with the paranoia of the prophet Michael Burry’s announcement about closing his fund, as “he no longer understands this market”, have caused the largest market declines since October.
📉 Oracle’s stock has lost one-third of its value in the past two months, wiping out the 36% surge it saw after its last earnings report. The hype was driven by Oracle’s strengthening ties to OpenAI and expectations around the AI market. However, there are now growing concerns that the AI market may have run too far, too fast.
💰 Analysts are questioning whether OpenAI can live up to its $300 billion commitment to Oracle over five years, as “AI sentiment is waning.” Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to fund its AI buildout, including developing data centers and purchasing GPUs. This has raised concerns about Oracle’s ability to fund the required capital expenditure.
⚠️ Analysts are skeptical about Oracle’s ability to reach its lofty cloud infrastructure revenue targets, with one downgrading the company’s debt due to its “significant funding needs.”
🤖 Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI is reportedly raising $15 billion from investors, adding to the $10 billion round reported in September. The funding is said to be aimed at financing the purchase of graphic processing units (GPUs) that power large language models for xAI’s AI projects.
❌ However, Musk later denied this news, calling it “False” in a post on his social media platform X.
💸 AI startups have been raising massive amounts of capital recently, with Anthropic closing a $13 billion round and OpenAI preparing for a potential $1 trillion IPO. But xAI has faced controversy, including over its use of natural gas-burning turbines to power data centers in Memphis, contributing to local air quality issues.
🌍 We do not know if, the financial press considers that the data centers of Xai contaminate more than the rest, because in reality, they do not like that an uncensored platform, which accepts that citizens can launch criticism to the political power, without being accused of “hate speech” and deleted digitally, as other platforms do.
🇬🇧 UK labor market may be starting to stabilize, but significant uncertainty remains ahead of the government’s budget plans and their potential impact on businesses and employment.
📊 The downturn in Britain’s labor market showed some signs of abating in October, according to the monthly Report on Jobs survey from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC). Permanent job placements contracted at the slowest rate since July 2021, pointing to a stabilization in the labor market.
🏦 This survey data is closely watched by the Bank of England as a gauge of employment and private sector wage trends, which have cooled recently as the central bank expected.
💷 UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is now looking at potentially dropping plans to increase the basic or higher income tax rates, after facing internal pressure about the political implications.
🧾 She is also reevaluating proposals to implement an “exit tax” on wealthy individuals leaving the UK, as well as changes to how limited liability partnerships are taxed. This comes as Reeves is facing the challenge of needing to fill a budget hole of up to £35 billion, leading her to consider alternative tax policy options.
📅 The budget announcement is scheduled for November 26th, but Reeves is said to still be weighing dozens of policy options at this late stage, more than in previous budgets.
🏘️ Meanwhile, China’s new home prices fell at the fastest monthly pace in a year in October, highlighting the persistent weakness in the crisis-hit property sector. Prices fell 0.5% month-on-month, the steepest decline since October 2021, after a 0.4% drop in September.
📉 The continued price declines, even during the traditionally peak sales season, underscore the challenges Beijing faces in stabilizing the property market. While authorities have rolled out some support measures, large-scale new stimulus has been withheld this year, with recent policy steps mainly reaffirming existing commitments.
🏭 China’s factory output and retail sales growth slowed to their weakest pace in over a year in October, putting pressure on policymakers to revamp the country’s export-driven economic model. China’s industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year in October, the weakest pace since August 2024, while retail sales expanded just 2.9%, their slowest growth since August 2021.
⚙️ This highlights the challenges China faces, as the trade war with the U.S. and weak domestic demand undermine the economy’s traditional growth drivers. China’s exports unexpectedly contracted in October, as producers struggle to find new markets after months of front-loading to beat U.S. tariffs. Even car sales slumped, despite expectations of a pre-holiday boost.
🏗️ The slowdown in investment is also troubling, with fixed asset investment shrinking 1.7% in the first 10 months, as low confidence drags on the economy.
📈 China may only needs 4.5-4.6% growth in Q4 to meet its 5% annual target, reducing the urgency for more aggressive stimulus measures.
🛢️ Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack damaged an oil depot in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export hub.
🚫 The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, which are expected to disrupt around 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports. However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said global oil supplies would slightly exceed demand in 2026, a shift from an earlier projection for a deficit.
📦 The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks last week.
💰 Bitcoin has sunk deeper below the $100,000 mark, dragged down by a fresh wave of risk aversion and a selloff in tech stocks. Bitcoin fell as much as 3.8% to as low as $96,000, wiping out over $450 billion in value since early October. Potential reasons: weakening ETF flows, continued selling by long-term holders, and muted retail participation.
📉 The past bear markets have seen 30-40% declines, and Bitcoin is now down over 20% from its 2025 high with few signs of a sustainable rebound.
Gepolitics.
⚔️ According to multiple sources cited by CBS News, senior U.S. officials — including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine — briefed President Trump on updated military options for potential operations in Venezuela. The plans reportedly include land strikes, with discussions taking place amid what insiders described as an urgent push to divert attention from the release of Epstein-related files.
Market View.
📉 US markets are retreating, particularly in the technology sector, amid possible shifts in the Federal Reserve’s outlook, as explained in our news section. S&P 500 futures have erased the gains made since Monday, falling below 6,800 and currently trading at 6,745 points. Nasdaq 100 futures have also dropped below 25,000, now trading at 24,995.
💵 The DXY dollar index fell toward the 99 area before rebounding to 99.30. The EUR/USD pair briefly climbed above 1.1650 but has since retreated to 1.1625.
📉 In Europe, losses pushed DAX 40 futures back toward the 24,000 level, from which they have bounced slightly to 24,075. EuroStoxx 50 futures, which had previously reached highs above 5,800, have pulled back to around 5,715.
🛢️ Crude oil saw a sharp but brief rally, with Brent crude almost reaching $65 per barrel following Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries — more details can be found in the news section.
🥇 Gold futures climbed to $4,250 per ounce yesterday but have since slipped to $4,185.
₿ Bitcoin continues to suffer heavy losses, dropping back below $100,000 and even falling under $96,000 before rebounding to its current level of $97,125.
