📊 Market Report.
🇺🇸 U.S. President Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom” on Sunday, an operation framed around America helping to free stranded cargo vessels belonging to nations not party to the Middle East conflict.
📨 Iran reported receiving U.S. response to its 14-point peace proposal via Pakistan on Sunday, with Tehran reviewing American counterproposal, though Washington and Islamabad provided no immediate confirmation, indicating diplomatic channel active but communication transparency limited.
🗣️ Trump stated Saturday he would likely reject Iranian proposal because “they have not paid a big enough price,” signaling U.S. maintaining maximalist negotiating position and demanding additional Iranian concessions before accepting peace framework, suggesting diplomatic gap remains substantial.
📑 Iran’s proposal delays nuclear talks until after war ends and blockades lifted, representing significant shift aimed facilitating agreement by deferring complicated nuclear issues to final negotiation stage, though approach conflicts with Washington’s demand Iran accept stringent nuclear restrictions before war ending.
☢️ Washington demands Iran surrender 400+ kilograms highly enriched uranium stockpile before war ending, while Iran claims peaceful nuclear program and willing discussing curbs for sanctions lifting, representing fundamental disagreement on nuclear program scope and verification mechanisms.
🚢 Iran blocking nearly all Gulf shipping except own vessels over two months, with U.S. imposing counter-blockade on Iranian port. Trump under domestic political pressure breaking Iran’s Strait of Hormuz control, with blockade choking 20% world oil and gas supplies and pushing U.S. gasoline prices higher, creating Republican voter backlash risk ahead November midterm congressional elections.
⚔️ A U.S. ceasefire looks shaky after Iran struck the UAE; U.S. Central Command reported sinking six Iranian small boats in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later warned on Fox News Iran would be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targets U.S. ships protecting commercial traffic.
🛢️ ‘When all this is over, the prices of gas, oil and petrol will fall, but right now the markets are hitting record highs – we’re doing really well. When all this is over, we’ll have a world with an Iran without nuclear weapons.’ Trump said.
🔎 Currently, there is no evidence that Iran possesses nuclear weapons. The rhetoric is suspiciously similar to that surrounding Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, which never existed.
🏭 New orders for U.S. factory goods rose more than expected in March, led by surging demand for electronics products amid the artificial intelligence investment boom. Factory orders were up 1.5% on the month, the biggest gain since November, up from an upwardly revised 0.3% in February. Economists had predicted a 0.5% rise.
📈 The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sent input costs rapidly upward, with oil prices surging by nearly 50%, and supplier delivery times growing longer.
🇪🇺 Euro area manufacturers accumulated raw material inventories in April due to concerns regarding additional supply disruptions and elevated costs stemming from Middle East conflict, while business confidence declined to its lowest level since late 2024.
📊 The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI headline index rose to 52.2 from 51.6 in March, with readings above 50.0 indicating expansion in manufacturing activity across the region. Customers accelerated purchasing decisions in April rather than delaying purchases, driven by fears of future price increases and anticipated availability constraints linked to Middle East disruptions.
📉 The future output expectations index, measuring business optimism, dropped to 55.4 from 58.2, representing its lowest reading in 17 months and indicating deteriorating confidence about economic prospects.
🌍 All eight monitored euro zone countries posted PMI readings above 50.0 for the first time since June 2022. Employment continued declining, extending job cuts to nearly three years despite rising backlogs of work, suggesting manufacturers are not hiring despite increased order volumes.
📉 Euro area economic growth slowed to 0.1% in the previous quarter, falling below expectations for 0.2% expansion, indicating weakening economic momentum across the region.
🔥 Attack on UEA.
🏗️ A petroleum storage facility in Fujairah port with partial Vitol Group ownership experienced what was described as an attack.
🚢 American military forces facilitated the passage of two U.S.-registered vessels through the strait as part of President Trump’s newly announced initiative to establish a shipping corridor through the waterway. During this operation, the U.S. military reported repelling assaults involving Iranian unmanned aircraft, ballistic weapons, and speedboats equipped with weapons.
📺 Iranian state broadcaster IRIB quoted senior military source yesterday, denying Iran had pre-planned program attacking oil facilities or targeting UAE, explicitly stating “no plan to target the UAE,” contradicting earlier unverified IRGC-affiliated social media posts appearing claiming credit for strikes.
🗯️ IRIB statement blamed U.S. military “adventurism” creating passage for illegal ship transit through Strait of Hormuz restricted waterways, explicitly demanding “US military must be held accountable,” representing Iranian counter-accusation strategy deflecting responsibility while attacking American actions.
🚀 The attacks involved 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones launched from Iran targeting UAE, with air defenses intercepting most, one drone striking Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone causing major fire and moderate injuries, plus separate tanker incident in Strait of Hormuz.
🤝 Arab states Saudi Arabia and Kuwait jointly condemning Iranian actions, representing unified Gulf Arab response contradicting Iranian denial.
⚠️ Important, remember that according to Trump, Iran has been defeated and its army, navy and defensive capabilities crushed, so this should not be happening.
📰 Attack on South Korea or False Flag to drag it into war?
📱 Trump posted Truth Social yesterday, 2026 claiming Iran fired on South Korean cargo ship HMM Namu and urged Seoul joining “Project Freedom” mission, applying diplomatic pressure leveraging maritime incident to expand international coalition supporting U.S. Strait of Hormuz escort operations.
🚢 HMM Namu, Panama-flagged cargo ship operated by South Korean shipping giant Hyundai Merchant Marine, experienced engine room explosion and fire May 4 while anchored near UAE in Strait of Hormuz, with all 24 crew members safe and no casualties reported after fire extinguishment.
🇰🇷 South Korea’s official position as May 5 maintains cautious neutrality, with Foreign Ministry and Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries confirming blaze, stating authorities actively investigating cause.
🧐 South Korean media emphasizes investigation ongoing regarding whether incident resulted from external attack, drifting mine, or internal mechanical failure, adopting deliberately cautious tone.
📚 Two stories to remember:
⚓ In 1898, the sinking of the USS Maine in Havana Harbour was deliberately caused by the United States or by pro-war agents to create a pretext for declaring war on Spain, not by a Spanish mine, as was reported in the media at the time.
🛰️ In 1967, the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty during the Six-Day War was an intentional attack designed to silence the ship (which was allegedly intercepting communications) and to provoke the United States into entering the war, as it was initially reported that the attack had been carried out by Egypt.
🛢️ Oil prices up again:
📈 Oil prices increased sharply following renewed military conflicts occurring in the Gulf region, with attacks targeting both essential energy facilities and commercial oil transport vessels.
💰 Brent crude futures climbed 5.8%, closing at a price exceeding $114 per barrel in response to the escalating hostilities and supply concerns.
✈️ Airlines in trouble:
🌍 The Iran conflict, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and resulting global jet fuel supply disruptions have fundamentally altered the aviation industry’s financial outlook and operational plans.
⛽ The jet fuel supply crunch is creating a significant financial burden on the airline industry, forcing carriers to absorb billions of dollars in unexpected expenses related to war-driven fuel price increases.
💺 Airlines worldwide are implementing price increases on ancillary services including baggage fees and seat selection charges to offset rising operational expenses from elevated fuel costs.
🛑 Spirit Airlines ceased operations last week after failing to secure a bailout agreement with bondholders and the Trump administration, marking the end of the iconic budget carrier known for bright yellow planes and ultra-low fares.
👷 The airline’s shutdown resulted in 17,000 direct and indirect job losses and represents Spirit’s second bankruptcy filing since November 2024, following years of struggles including failed mergers, shifting consumer preferences, and escalating operational costs.
💵 The Trump administration offered a $500 million loan that could have provided the government up to 90% ownership stake, but negotiations with bondholders this week failed to produce an acceptable agreement on deal terms.
📊 Jet fuel costs doubled in certain locations, creating an insurmountable financial burden that Spirit could not overcome despite bankruptcy restructuring efforts.
❄️ Cold War is back?
🚢 A Russian nuclear-powered submarine has arrived in Havana, Cuba today, just 90 miles from the United States. The Russian Navy nuclear submarine Kazan arriving to Cuba as part of a Russian fleet ahead of planned military exercises in the Caribbean.
🌍 Trade War updates:
🇬🇧 Trump repealed tariffs on a key U.K. export last week, after a state visit from King Charles III and Queen Camilla appeared to help mend transatlantic relations dampened by a series of political standoffs.
🥃 “In Honor of the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, who have just left the White House, soon headed back to their wonderful Country, I will be removing the Tariffs and Restrictions on Whiskey having to do with Scotland’s ability to work with the Commonwealth of Kentucky on Whiskey and Bourbon,” the president said in a Thursday Truth Social post.
🏢 Corporate world:
🚗 Ford CEO Jim Farley said the U.S. should not allow Chinese electric vehicles into the American market, citing the competitive threat they pose.
🔋 He described his assessment of Chinese EV technology as “the most humbling thing I’ve ever seen,” adding that Chinese automakers currently have “far superior in‑vehicle tech,” highlighting concerns about competitiveness in software, connectivity, and user experience systems.
🛒 GameStop announced an unsolicited, nonbinding takeover proposal for eBay valued at approximately $55.5 billion, offering $125 per share split evenly between cash and GameStop stock, representing a 20% premium to eBay’s Friday closing price. eBay shares climbed approximately 5% to around $109 on Monday, remaining significantly below GameStop’s $125 offer, indicating investor skepticism regarding deal completion likelihood.
📉 GameStop stock declined 10% following the announcement, with the company’s market value standing just below $12 billion compared to eBay’s $46 billion valuation. GameStop has accumulated approximately 5% stake in eBay consisting primarily of derivatives alongside common stock, with remaining deal funding sourced from the company’s $9.4 billion cash reserves and potential additional share issuance.
📊 Cohen argued eBay’s earnings power could increase materially under tighter cost controls, claiming earnings could potentially double within a relatively short timeframe through efficiency improvements.
🛍️ eBay’s gross merchandise volume declined from $100 billion peak in 2020 to $79.6 billion in 2025 as the platform struggled retaining shoppers amid increased competition from Amazon, Walmart, Etsy, and China-linked marketplaces including TikTok Shop, Temu and Shein.
📅 A slew of earnings reports are on tap this week, especially with company guidance on energy costs, consumer demand signals, and the second-half outlook carrying extra weight.
🛢️ Shell: closely watched as an energy proxy for Iran conflict—guidance on oil prices, production disruptions, and capital allocation signals market expectations on energy trajectory and conflict duration.
🚢 Maersk: monitored as a shipping proxy—guidance on freight rates, Strait of Hormuz transit costs, and supply‑chain normalization timelines indicates trade/logistics impact.
💊 Novo Nordisk: update reflects pricing pressure in weight‑loss drugs—guidance shows pricing power and demand resilience amid cost inflation and regulatory scrutiny.
🏎️ Ferrari: earnings gauge luxury demand—performance reveals whether high‑net‑worth spending holds despite inflation and geopolitical risks.
🚘 BMW: earnings indicate premium auto demand—guidance shows if middle‑to‑upper income buyers sustain vehicle purchases or cut discretionary spending.
Market View.
📉 US futures are pulling back, albeit with notable divergences.
📈 E‑mini S&P 500 futures have declined from the 7,300 level to around 7,245, while Nasdaq 100 futures remain close to record highs, posting only modest retracements. This suggests that enthusiasm for technology and artificial intelligence remains firmly intact.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY), which weakened towards the end of last week, has regained strength and is now trading near 98.50. As a result, EUR/USD has retreated from Friday’s high of 1.1785 to approximately 1.1685.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX 40 futures have given back the gains recovered at the end of last week and are trading again around 24,050, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures have fallen below the 5,800 level, currently standing near 5,725.
🛢️ Oil prices are rising once more. Spot Brent crude has returned to the upper end of its range, with a well‑established resistance around $115 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures declined at the start of the week but have found support above $4,500 per ounce, currently trading at $4,555.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin is gradually emerging from the downturn seen earlier this year, having surpassed $80,000 and now approaching $81,000.
