Market Report.
🇺🇸 President Trump is scheduled to deliver an address Today providing an update on the war with Iran, set for 9 p.m. Eastern Time, which corresponds to 2 a.m. Thursday in London.
🎙️ President Trump stated that the United States would be exiting the conflict, declaring, “We’ll be leaving very soon… what happens in [Hormuz] we’ll have nothing to do with,” and adding that other countries would need to secure their own access to Persian Gulf energy supplies. However, developments on the ground suggest the situation remains more complex, and such remarks may be aimed at influencing market reactions again rather than reflecting an immediate shift in U.S. involvement.
🎲 As is typical of Trump’s negotiating style, anything could happen—it’s a coin toss, an all-or-nothing situation. Yesterday he said that France and the United Kingdom could go get their own oil, suggesting that the U.S. would be done and would withdraw from the war soon. However, the Pentagon is preparing plans for weeks of ground operations in Iran as U.S. forces continue to amass in the region: The plans could involve both conventional infantry and special operations elements, though not a full-scale invasion. The plans are being developed in the wake of an Iranian missile and drone attack that injured a dozen U.S. service members at a base in Saudi Arabia.
🇷🇺 Russian Chechen combat units have reportedly informed Iran that they are prepared to deploy and fight alongside Iranian forces in the event of a U.S. ground invasion, according to PressTV.
📑 But before delivering our war briefing, we will summarise yesterday’s macroeconomic data releases.
📈 First, the annualised GDP growth rate in the United Kingdom came in at 1%, in line with expectations. In the euro area, CPI inflation was reported at 2.5%, slightly below forecasts. In the United States, consumer confidence rose to 91.8, above the expected 87.8. However, JOLTS job openings data came in slightly weaker than anticipated.
🌏 However, Asia’s heavy reliance on energy imports, with about 80% of the oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, makes many economies in the region highly vulnerable to the fallout from the Iran conflict.
🏭 Manufacturing activity in many Asian economies slowed in March, as the impacts of the Iran war and resulting surging fuel costs took a toll on the region: China’s manufacturing PMI fell, with the report citing intensifying inflationary pressures and supply chain strains.
🏗️ Manufacturing activity slowed in economies like Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines, as the Middle East conflict drove up energy and raw material prices.
🇯🇵 Japan’s manufacturing PMI also declined, with input prices rising at the fastest pace since August 2024 due to the war-related cost pressures, as well as a weak yen and labor shortages. Corporate inflation expectations hit record highs, with companies expecting 2.6% inflation one year from now and 2.5% inflation 3 and 5 years from now.
🏦 The strong business sentiment and heightened inflation expectations bolster the case for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as soon as this month. Markets are pricing in around a 70% chance of another rate hike by the BOJ in April, as the weak yen and rising oil prices add to inflationary pressures.
🌍 In relation to the war in the Middle East:
🇪🇺 A notable shift appears to be underway in transatlantic relations, as several European countries take independent security decisions that sideline Washington’s position. Spain, Italy, France and Switzerland have reportedly closed their airspace to U.S. military aircraft, while Poland has declined to provide missile batteries to the United States.
✈️ Italy denied U.S. military aircraft, the second European NATO ally after Spain, described as “some US bombers,” permission to land at Naval Air Station Sigonella in eastern Sicily before proceeding to the Middle East.
🇫🇷 France has blocked Israeli aircraft from overflying its territory to transport U.S.-supplied weapons destined for operations against Iran. However, France has not imposed a full ban on all military overflights to Israel or the Middle East. The block appears to be specifically targeted at aircraft transporting offensive arms for use in the Iran conflict.
📱 President Trump sharply criticized France on Truth Social, labeling the country “UNHELP” and warning that “the US will remember this!”. In retaliation, Israel has announced it is suspending all arms purchases and sales with France, a significant economic and diplomatic escalation given the deep bilateral defense industry ties.
🤝 Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Council President António Costa directly: “We possess the necessary will to end this conflict, provided that essential conditions are met, especially the guarantees required to prevent repetition of the aggression”. “We do not accept a ceasefire because we do not want what happened last year to be repeated. The war must end completely and permanently.”
🗓️ On March 11, 2026, Pezeshkian outlined Tehran’s terms in a post on X after discussions with Russian and Pakistani leaders. The three demands include recognition of Iran’s “legitimate rights” related to civilian nuclear energy and security, payment of reparations for damages and casualties, and firm international guarantees from the U.S. and Israel against future aggression.
🇹🇷 But there is another NATO country that is showing opposition to the US-Israel war and should worry the US even more, it is Turkey. Turkish Parliament Member says Turkey is supporting Iran: “Two madmen have attacked Iran, and Iran is standing against them. We stand with Iran and support Iran”. Erdoğan has condemned the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran as a “clear violation of international law” and expressed solidarity with the Iranian people.
⚖️ However, the government has stopped short of calling for military alignment with Iran, with Foreign Minister Fidan stating Turkey’s “primary objective is to stay outside the war.”
🧭 Nevertheless, former Israeli PM Bennett has publicly framed Turkey as an emerging strategic threat, with Israel and the U.S. floating the idea that Turkey could be the next target after Iran.
🚀 The Houthi Escalation Dimension: The March 28 attack coincided with Houthi forces formally entering the war, launching missiles from Yemen toward Israel — one of which was intercepted by Israeli air defenses — and simultaneously threatening Saudi and UAE oil infrastructure.
🚢 Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually opening up to “friendly nations”:
📦 Iran has established a new “Friendly Nations” framework to grant selective access through the Strait of Hormuz, backed by a tariff system and regulatory requirements. Approximately 2,000 vessels are stranded in the vicinity, with around 400 anchored in the Gulf of Oman.
🌐 Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that vessels from 5 nations – China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan – will be granted passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Malaysia and Thailand also secured access after diplomatic talks with Iran.
🌾 The UN negotiated a separate exemption for humanitarian and fertilizer shipments to avoid disrupting the global spring planting season.
⛔ Vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, and countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran are explicitly denied passage.
💰 Iran’s parliament has endorsed a toll and access framework for the strait: Up to $2 million per vessel for safe passage, payable in Iranian rials, New security and environmental compliance requirements attached to each transit permit & Mandatory vessel registration for all ships wishing to use the corridor.
🗣️ Finally, returning to Trump’s remarks, his statements are becoming increasingly erratic, making it clear that there is no clear plan on the table and that things are not moving in the right direction.
💬 “They want to make a deal more than I want to make a deal, but in a fairly short period of time will be finished,” the president said. “Look what’s happening in Iran,” Trump said. “I mean, we’re totally unchecked. Everything’s been bombed out.” “We’re hitting them very hard,” he said. “Last night, we knocked out tremendous amounts of missile-making facilities.”
📣 He also said: “They have no military. They have no nothing. They admit that they are losing. They are begging to make a deal.”
⚠️ However, the reality appears to be radically different, and they avoid mentioning Iranian attacks such as the one that took place four days ago, which dealt a severe blow to the U.S. military.
🎯 The March 28th Iranian Strike on Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB) in Saudi Arabia: The coordinated strike involved at least 6 ballistic missiles and 29 drones, a larger and more complex attack than previous strikes on the same base.
🏗️ PSAB is a critical U.S. military hub in the region, hosting 2,000-5,000 U.S. troops engaged in missile defense, aerial refueling, and logistics for the Iran campaign. In total, 13 U.S. service members have been killed since February 28th – 6 in Kuwait, 6 in Iraq, and 1 who died from wounds sustained earlier in Saudi Arabia.
🚑 Over 300 U.S. troops have been wounded, with approximately 225 suffering traumatic brain injuries. Iran has also struck the U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain multiple times. The combined strikes have resulted in over 50 fatalities recorded in Gulf nations.
🛡️ This would demonstrate that, despite the United States’ overwhelming military superiority, Iran’s weapons systems are not only still operational but are also effective, and that the United States is vulnerable to them—a fact that strongly contradicts Trump’s claims of victory.
Market View.
📊 Markets appear to be rebounding as investors await President Trump’s speech on the Iran conflict.
📈 E‑mini S&P 500 futures are climbing towards 6,615 following the sharp declines of recent days, while Nasdaq 100 futures are also recovering towards the 24,155 area.
❓ The key question remains: is this a constructive turnaround, or merely a pullback before further downside? With Trump, anything is possible. Some may view this as a tactical move to stabilise markets without necessarily having a concrete resolution in place.
💵 The US dollar is retreating, with the DXY index falling below 99.60, allowing EUR/USD to rebound towards 1.1585.
🇪🇺 In Europe, futures are also posting strong gains.
📊 The DAX 40 has surged above 23,500, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are rising towards 5,655 amid renewed optimism.
🛢️ Brent crude has moved back below the $100 per barrel mark, currently trading around $99.85.
🥇 Gold futures continue their ascent, trading above $4,740 per ounce.
₿ Finally, Bitcoin is rebounding once again, approaching the $69,000 level.
