Market Report.
🇺🇸 Today, Donald Trump does not have the lead. Yesterday we had a press conference by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the course of the ongoing conflict with Iran:
🎙️ He stated that “Iran is being decimated” as the U.S. and Israel target Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs from the air.
🪖 However, Netanyahu said meaningful regime change in Iran will require a “ground component” in addition to the air strikes. Netanyahu said the Iranian people must “rise to the moment” and exploit the conditions created by the air campaign, but he did not specify what the ground component could entail. The territorial extension of Iran, and its geography make it very difficult for a military operation with troops on the ground.
🤝 He denied accusations that Israel dragged the U.S. into the war, saying President Trump was already convinced of the nuclear threat posed by Iran. He confirmed that Israel did not inform Trump about the attacks on oil infrastructure mentioned in our latest report. “Israel acted alone against the [South Pars] gas compound.”
📌 Recordatorio: Israel atacó el complejo gasístico de South Pars y las instalaciones de Asaluyeh en la costa sur de Irán. Irán respondió declarando objetivos militares las instalaciones energéticas de Qatar, Emiratos Árabes Unidos y Arabia Saudí. Qatar informó del lanzamiento de cinco misiles balísticos desde territorio iraní; cuatro interceptados, uno impactó en Ras Laffan.
🛢️ The most important part of his speech, ignored by the media, is precisely the suggestion he made about alternative routes for oil and gas exports, and this could be the key to the war and its real motivations, attention: “We need alternative routes instead of the Hormuz Strait. We should have oil and gas pipelines going west through the Arabian Peninsula right up to our ports in Israel”.
🌍 And who would be the world’s largest customer for the gas that Israel could export?
🇪🇺 Europe is the world’s leading importer of liquefied natural gas, with a significant percentage supplied by Qatar. Gas imports from this region are both crucial and strategic.
⚡ The continent vividly remembers the surge in inflation and electricity prices following the invasion of Ukraine — a clear demonstration of how sensitive Europe is to energy‑related conflicts. This helps explain its cautious and highly engaged stance regarding the current crisis.
🇫🇷 Emmanuel Macron stated that France, together with other nations, is prepared to assume responsibility for the situation in the Strait once hostilities end, stressing that this would not be a military operation.
🇬🇧 UK Defence Minister Al Carns cautioned that naval escorts alone would not be adequate to defend vessels during the fight in a situation needing a “deeply complex” multinational combination of air, sea, and strike capabilities.
🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen noted that gas prices rose by 30% following the attacks on Qatari gas infrastructure, adding that measures must be taken to mitigate the impact.
❓ But what kind of measures?
💰 A reduction in gas taxation? Across Europe, average taxes on gas exceed 30%, reaching close to 40% in countries such as Italy and the Netherlands. However, if governments lower energy taxes to cushion consumers, the question arises: how will they compensate for the resulting fiscal shortfall — particularly while continuing to finance substantial commitments abroad, including support for Ukraine?
🇺🇸 The United States, however, may have more immediate and potentially effective options.
💬 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated yesterday on Fox News that the administration is considering lifting certain trade restrictions — not only on Russian vessels, but potentially on Iranian ships as well: “We unsanctioned Russian oil… …in the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that’s on the water”.
💲 Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed that the Pentagon is seeking roughly $200 billion for the war with Iran, stating: “It takes money to kill bad guys.”
🌐 What about Russia and China on the conflict?
🇷🇺 According to analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): Russia has accrued some short-term benefits from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, such as increased oil sales due to sanctions waivers. However, this is not a “game-changer” for Russia’s economy.
🛰️ Russia could threaten to provide sophisticated weapons to Iran as leverage in dealing with the U.S. administration, but it has not directly engaged with the U.S. on the Iran conflict.
🇨🇳 For China, the impact of the U.S.-Iran war is “complicated.” China receives 25% of its crude oil imports from Iran, and the conflict is also impacting China’s substantial investments in the region. However, China is unlikely to directly assist the U.S. effort to shield commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as China has been distancing itself from Iran and continues to purchase discounted, sanctioned Iranian oil.
🧠 Chinese analysts are suspicious that the U.S. is using the conflict to demonstrate its military capabilities in a way that could be applied against China in the future. They see the conflicts with Venezuela and Iran as indirectly containing China’s access to critical oil supplies.
🔥 Latest war events.
🚀 Israel and Iran are continuing their cross-border attacks.
✈️ Iran claims it shot down a U.S. F‑35, while the United States says the aircraft made an emergency landing. According to CNN, Iranian air defenses struck an F‑35 fighter jet, damaging it and forcing it to land at a U.S. airbase in the region.
🪖 Forbes reported that “pilot survives” suggests the pilot was hit by shrapnel.
🎥 The IRGC released video it says shows the moment the jet was struck over Iranian airspace, stating:
📢 “A U.S. F‑35 fighter jet operating in central Iranian airspace at approximately 2:50 AM local time was struck and seriously damaged by the IRGC’s aerospace defense systems. The fate of the aircraft is currently under investigation, but a crash is considered highly likely.” — IRGC Public Relations Office.
🛡️ Reports indicate that the F-35 was discovered by the Russian S-300 PMU-2 Favorite air defense system radar previously supplied to Iran. Iran also has at least one S-400 battery, delivered before the war and was spotted in the Isfahan area, which was not seen in footage of strikes on Iranian air defenses.
❗ It is unclear if Russian advisors were involved in helping streamlining operations, but that would certainly be a big deal.
🧭 NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in relation with the conflict: “It was crucial for Iran NOT to get Nuclear capability or Ballistic Missile capability” (…) “What the US and Israel is doing at the moment is degrading that capability of Iran, and I think that’s very important”.
⚖️ However, the former NATO Secretary General, who served until October 2024, takes a different view.
🗣️ Jens Stoltenberg stated that the attack on Iran was illegal and argued that NATO should remain outside the conflict. He also warned that there are no guarantees the Alliance would endure another Trump presidency, highlighting concerns over internal cohesion and long‑term strategic stability.
Market View.
📉 US futures are struggling to recover. The S&P 500 is failing to push above the 6,700 level, while Nasdaq 100 futures are also unable to break through 24,700. Markets remain stuck between uncertainty and conflict.
💵 The US dollar index (DXY) pulled back during yesterday’s session after reaching 100, and is currently trading around 99.30. This has once again provided some relief to currency pairs such as EUR/USD, which has recovered towards 1.1575, and USD/JPY, which, after approaching 160, fell sharply back to around 157.50.
🇪🇺 In Europe, DAX futures are attempting a rebound, moving above 23,300, while Euro Stoxx 50 futures are also rising above 5,600, seeking to recover part of their recent losses.
🛢️ Crude oil has retreated following Thursday’s early‑morning spike, with spot Brent now trading at approximately $107.30 per barrel.
🥇 Gold futures fell towards the $4,500 per ounce area, although they are rebounding in recent hours to around $4,725.
₿ Meanwhile, Bitcoin lost support at $71,800 and dropped below $70,000, but is currently bouncing back to around $71,115.
