📰 Market Report.
🐔 The tariff delays have led to a new saying on Wall Street, TACO, Trump Always Chickens Out, which would explain why the markets do not seem to be alarmed this time around by the return of tariffs.
📈 President Donald Trump announced a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil, both to take effect on August 1. He blamed the decline of the U.S. copper industry on past administrations, saying copper is needed for critical industries like semiconductors, aircraft, and electric vehicles.
🇧🇷 The tariff on Brazil is in response to the “Witch Hunt” trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, whom Trump supports, as well as Brazil’s alleged attacks on free elections and free speech.
🤝 Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said any unilateral tariff increase would be met with a reciprocal response from Brazil.
🌍 Trump also issued tariff notices to seven minor trading partners, with rates ranging from 20-30%, adding to the 14 other countries he targeted earlier this week with 25% tariffs.
🛠️ As the tariff drama unfolded, U.S. and EU negotiators made progress on a trade deal to ease Trump’s tariffs on the EU, with a potential agreement possible within days.
⏳ Trump has now signaled that there will be “no change” to the August 1 deadline for implementing the new tariffs, despite the uncertainty and turmoil they have caused in global trading markets.
📉 What about the Fed’s rate cuts? The minutes published by the Fed reflect a division between maintaining rates due to fears of inflation caused by trade tariffs, or cutting rates due to economic weakness, reflected in the labour market and Q1 growth rates.
💬 While most participants assessed that some reduction in the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate this year, there was a range of opinions – from a couple officials who said a cut could come as soon as this month, to some who thought no reductions this year would be appropriate.
🏚️ The trade war is not the only problem facing the Chinese economy. The risk on its real estate sector remains high: Falling real estate prices are a major concern, with average secondhand apartment prices in 100 major cities dropping 13% from June 2023 to June 2025.
💸 The property slump is weighing heavily on consumer sentiment and spending, as housing accounts for 60-70% of household wealth in China. The real estate sector slowdown is also reducing local governments’ fiscal revenues, leading them to seek new ways to extract money from businesses.
🌪️ This perfect storm of events is putting significant pressure on the Chinese economy, even without external factors like the trade war.
🎉 There’s a party on Wall Street, without the Fed invited, and despite the tariffs: Nvidia has hit a new Wall Street milestone, briefly passing $4 trillion in market value – the first company ever to do so. This reinforces that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is still at the heart of the current stock market rally.
🚀 Nvidia’s stock is up 21% year-to-date, after soaring 171% in 2023 and 239% in 2024, as the company has shaken off concerns about tariffs and competition. But remember, Being the world’s most valuable company is not a permanent status.
🤖 Beyond Nvidia’s own growth, the company is emblematic of the broader AI rally, with other major tech stocks like Microsoft and Meta Platforms also benefiting from the AI theme.
📊 Shocking figures: According to the Pew Research Center, 59% of Canadians and 68% of Mexicans view the United States as the biggest threat to their country, above Russia, North Korea and Iran.
✈️ According to Newsweek, China has expressed its readiness to supply its J-10 fighter jets to Iran. The Chinese defense ministry stated that it is willing to provide these aircraft to “friendly countries,” following reports indicating that Iran is seeking to acquire them.
🛑 Netanyahu says he’s not concerned about being arrested in New York by its new mayor, Zohran Mamdani. “I’m going to come there with President Trump, and we’ll see.” Mamdani publicly stated that he would seek to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if Netanyahu visited New York City. This was in reference to the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) warrant for Netanyahu’s arrest.
📈 Market View:
📊 The markets seem to be handling tariff threats rather well. During yesterday’s session, the E-mini S&P 500 futures managed to climb above 6,300 points, from which they have since retreated to the current level of 6,290. The Nasdaq exhibited similar behaviour, temporarily surpassing 23,000 points before retreating to the current level of 22,990.
💵 The US dollar continued its advance, with the DXY index approaching 97.35 points. While it did not reach Tuesday’s levels, it showed a clear improvement compared to previous weeks. This has made it difficult for the EUR/USD pair to remain above 1.17; however, it is currently holding at 1.1730.
📊 In Europe, equities continue to display euphoria, having avoided, at least for now, the imposition of US tariffs. DAX 40 futures are nearing new all-time highs, trading above 24,700 points, while the Euro Stoxx 50 appears on the verge of reaching 5,500 points, approaching its historical highs.
🛢️ Crude oil remains elevated but below the levels reached in June during the tensions between Israel and Iran. Brent crude is currently trading above $70 per barrel.
🏅 The prices of gold futures are once again on the rise, approaching $3,335 per ounce.
💻 Finally, Bitcoin experienced another bullish surge during yesterday’s session, reaching $112,000 before retreating to its current level of $111,300.
